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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 64.91%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 16.02%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.57%) and 1-0 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.74%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 1-2 (4.48%). The actual scoreline of 9-1 was predicted with a 0% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Heerenveen |
64.91% | 19.07% ( 0) | 16.02% |
Both teams to score 57.34% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.46% ( 0) | 36.54% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
41.32% ( 0) | 58.68% |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.41% ( 0) | 10.59% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
65.63% ( 0) | 34.37% |
Heerenveen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.13% ( 0) | 35.87% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.36% | 72.64% |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Heerenveen |
2-1 @ 9.82% 2-0 @ 9.57% 1-0 @ 8.53% 3-1 @ 7.35% 3-0 @ 7.17% 4-1 @ 4.12% 4-0 @ 4.02% 3-2 @ 3.77% 4-2 @ 2.11% 5-1 @ 1.85% 5-0 @ 1.81% 5-2 @ 0.95% Other @ 3.84% Total : 64.91% | 1-1 @ 8.74% 2-2 @ 5.03% 0-0 @ 3.8% 3-3 @ 1.29% ( 0) Other @ 0.2% Total : 19.07% | 1-2 @ 4.48% 0-1 @ 3.89% 0-2 @ 2% 2-3 @ 1.72% 1-3 @ 1.53% Other @ 2.4% Total : 16.02% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 9 | 31 | 33 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 28 |
3 | Ajax | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 26 |
4 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 13 | 15 | 25 |
5 | FC Twente | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 22 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
7 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 17 |
8 | NECNijmegen | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 16 |
9 | Willem II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
10 | Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 15 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 15 |
12 | Heerenveen | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
13 | Groningen | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 12 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
15 | Heracles | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 27 | -21 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 4 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |