FA Cup

FA Cup | Third Round

Jan 6, 2024 at 3pm UK

St. Mary's Stadium

Southampton
4 - 0
Walsall

Fraser (6', 68'), Mara (58'), Adams (78')
Amo-Ameyaw (45+2')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Southampton and Walsall, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Southampton

All competitions

Last Game: Norwich 1-1 Southampton
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Walsall

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Grimsby Town 1-6 Walsall
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Southampton 3-1 Walsall

Both sides have bigger promotion fish to fry in the coming months, but if the visitors' recent offensive exploits are anything to go by, Walsall ought to give an injury-hit Southampton a scare or two. However, Sadler's side have been decimated by fitness concerns of their own, and even if Saints boss Martin rings the changes, the in-form hosts should prove too strong for their League Two counterparts. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 63.31%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Walsall had a probability of 17.61%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.54%) and 1-0 (7.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.46%), while for a Walsall win it was 1-2 (4.8%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.

Result
Southampton	Draw	Walsall
63.31% ( -0.44)	19.08% ( 0.19)	17.61% ( 0.24)

Both teams to score 60.97% (

-0.23)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.51% (

-0.52)

33.49% (

0.52)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.72% (

-0.6)

55.28% (

0.59)

Southampton Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.88% (

-0.26)

10.12% (

0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

66.7% (

-0.58)

33.29% (

0.58)

Walsall Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.84% (

-0.07)

32.16% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.35% (

-0.07)

68.65% (

0.07)

Score Analysis

Southampton 63.31%

Walsall 17.61%

Draw 19.08%

Southampton	Draw	Walsall
2-1 @ 9.69% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 8.54% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 7.45% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 7.4% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 6.52% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 4.24% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 4.2% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 3.74% ( -0.06) 4-2 @ 2.4% ( -0.05) 5-1 @ 1.94% ( -0.06) 5-0 @ 1.71% ( -0.05) 5-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.03) 4-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.48% Total : 63.31%	1-1 @ 8.46% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 5.49% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 3.25% ( 0.09) 3-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.29% Total : 19.08%	1-2 @ 4.8% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 3.69% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 2.09% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 2.08% 1-3 @ 1.81% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.14% Total : 17.61%