Championship

[monks data]

Championship | Gameweek 38

Jun 20, 2020 at 12.30pm UK

Craven Cottage

Fulham
0 - 2
Brentford

Arter (90')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Benrahma (88'), Marcondes (90+1')
Dasilva (37'), Marcondes (90')

Preview: Fulham vs. Brentford - prediction, team news, lineups

By Daniel Lewis, Senior Reporter | 11 March 2020

Sports Mole previews Friday's clash between Championship promotion chasers Fulham and Brentford, including predictions, team news and head-to-head records.

West London rivals Fulham and Brentford face off at Craven Cottage on Friday night in a huge match at the top of the Championship.

Just one place separates the sides ahead of this derby showdown, but Fulham boast a four-point advantage on their near neighbours.

Match preview

Fulham manager Scott Parker on February 15, 2020 © Reuters

It is third-placed Fulham who are better placed to gatecrash the top two as we enter the final stretch of the Championship campaign.

The Cottagers battled to a 1-1 draw at Bristol City last weekend through a late Tom Cairney strike to make it four games without defeat.

Scott Parker's men have won four of their last five home league matches, including back-to-back victories over Swansea City and Preston North End since a shock 3-0 loss to Barnsley.

However, Fulham have won just one of their last 18 home games against Brentford in all competitions - a 1-0 victory back in April 1990.

Brentford were also victorious in the reverse fixture three months ago - Bryan Mbeumo scoring the only goal at Griffin Park - and are looking to complete a league double over Fulham for the first time since 2014-15.

Brentford's Ethan Pinnock celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on February 15, 2020 © Reuters

Thomas Frank's side saw their automatic promotion hopes derailed when going five games without a win, a run that was ended in style last weekend with a 5-0 home triumph against Sheffield Wednesday.

The Bees now face Fulham and West Bromwich Albion, the two sides directly above them, in what will be a crucial and potentially defining week in their campaign.

Not only can Brentford strengthen their promotion dream with victory at Craven Cottage on Friday, they can also strike a possibly fatal blow to Fulham's own hopes of a top-two finish.

Fulham's Championship form: DLDWWD

Brentford's Championship form: DDDLDW

Team News

Aleksandar Mitrovic celebrates scoring for Fulham on February 1, 2020 © Reuters

Maxime Le Marchand, Terence Kongolo, Alfie Mawson and Joe Bryan all remain absent for Fulham, leaving Parker short of options at the back.

Josh Onomah has missed the past month with a knee injury and is still another fortnight away from making a full recovery.

The Championship's leading goalscorer Aleksandar Mitrovic has won more points with his goals than any other player in the competition in 2019-20.

Mitrovic will be the first name on the teamsheet and Parker may well opt for the same XI that started against Bristol City last week.

That may also be the case for the visitors following their impressive display against Wednesday last time out.

Josh Dasilva was on target twice in that comfortable win and appears nailed on to retain his central-midfield berth, with Christian Norgaard and Emiliano Marcondes alongside him.

Shandon Baptiste is back in contention after returning to the squad last week, while Pontus Jansson is also closing in one a first-team comeback.

Fulham possible starting lineup:
Rodak; Christie, Hector, Ream, Odoi; Arter, Cairney; Kamara, Reid, Cavaleiro; Mitrovic

Brentford possible starting lineup:
Martin; Dalsgaard, Pinnock, Jeanvier, Henry; Marcondes, Norgaard, Dasilva; Mbeumo, Watkins, Benrahma

We say: Fulham 1-1 Brentford

Brentford looked impressive in brushing aside Sheffield Wednesday last weekend, but they have won just two of their last 10 away games in the Championship, drawing four of those. Fulham have also won just two of their last six matches, so we are predicting this one to finish all square.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fulham win with a probability of 38.96%. A win for Brentford had a probability of 34.82% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fulham win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.46%) and 2-0 (6.67%). The likeliest Brentford win was 0-1 (9.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.