We said: Malta 0-3 Greece
Any new manager bounce that takes effect for Malta this week is unlikely to count for much against an in-form Greece side, even if Poyet is without most of his first-choice backline.
There is no consistent international goalscorer in the visitors' ranks - Bakasetas is the highest scorer in the current squad with only eight strikes - but the Pirate Ship should still prove far too strong for Malta here.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Greece win with a probability of 52.76%. A win for Malta had a probability of 24.35% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Greece win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.06%) and 0-2 (8.3%). The likeliest Malta win was 2-1 (6.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.64%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.