FC Koln and Eintracht Frankfurt head into their Bundesliga clash on Saturday separated by just one point in the table, with both sides fighting it out for the European places.
The hosts have endured a mixed start to the New Year following their defeat last weekend, whilst the visitors suffered a loss themselves to add to their struggles in 2022.
Match preview
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Following a 3-1 loss at the hands of RB Leipzig last Friday, Koln have won just twice in their first six games of the New Year.
Steffen Baumgart's side were perhaps unfortunate not to pick up a positive result at the Red Bull Arena however, despite finding themselves 3-0 down before the hour mark, and Tim Lemperle's goal not being netted until second-half stoppage time.
The Billy Goats put in a relatively solid performance against the giants, but unfortunately for them their hosts were at their clinical best, with Leipzig converting three times from only six attempts on goal all game.
With Koln's only other defeat of the New Year being suffered against league leaders Bayern Munich, it is perhaps harsh to suggest that Saturday's hosts have only enjoyed a mixed start to 2022, but it can certainly be used as a compliment to how far they have come under Baumgart this campaign.
The former SC Paderborn boss has helped his side into eighth place ahead of matchday 23, in what continues to be a successful first season in charge for the German following Koln's struggles at the wrong end of the table in recent years.
In fact, with just two points separating Koln from Leipzig in fourth place at the time of writing, Baumgart could yet lead his side into Europe next season, and a victory on Saturday could well lift them into a top-six spot come the end of the weekend.
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Meanwhile, Frankfurt's disappointing start to 2022 has seen them fall to 10th in the table, but with only three points keeping them out of the Bundesliga's European places during an almighty battle for the top six in Germany's top flight this season.
A fantastic end to 2021, when Frankfurt won six of their final seven games of the calendar year, had catapulted Die Adler from a poor bottom-half spot into their desired European spots, but Saturday's visitors have been unable to replicate that form in the New Year so far.
Last weekend's 2-0 defeat at home to a struggling Wolfsburg side was already their third in their opening five league games this calendar year, whilst only one win has been recorded during this spell.
Oliver Glasner's side saw plenty of the ball and had numerous attempts against their opponents at the Deutsche Bank Park last Saturday, but without seriously testing Koen Casteels in the Wolfsburg goal.
Finding the back of the net has not been much of a concern since the opening stages of the campaign, despite the failure to last week, but after conceding 10 in their first five games of 2022, Frankfurt must find a solution to their defensive woes if they are to seriously push for a European spot of any kind come May.
This could be an issue for the visitors this weekend, as they visit a difficult venue in the form of the RheinEnergieStadion, where they have been victorious just once in their previous nine visits.
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Team News
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Koln look set to be without their first-choice goalkeeper Marvin Schwabe on Saturday, with the German having tested positive for COVID-19 since starting in the defeat last Friday.
Top goalscorer Anthony Modeste will return from the virus though, and the Frenchman will be hoping to add to his 14 Bundesliga goals this season when he returns to the starting lineup.
January arrival Julian Chabot should also return from COVID-19 along with Modeste, but Jannes Horn and Kingsley Schindler are expected to miss out with knocks at the RheinEnergieStadion.
As for the visitors, central defender Makoto Hasebe is likely to remain out for another month due to his broken rib.
Ragnar Ache and Diant Ramaj are also ruled out through thigh and knee injuries respectively, along with forward Goncalo Paciencia.
Filip Kostic is likely to return to the starting 11 after only being fit enough for a substitute appearance in the defeat against Wolfsburg, with Christopher Lenz likely to make way at left wing-back.
FC Koln possible starting lineup:
T Horn; Schmitz, Kilian, Hubers, Hector; Skhiri; Ljubicic, Uth, Kainz; Modeste
Eintracht Frankfurt possible starting lineup:
Trapp; Tuta, Hinteregger, N'Dicka; Da Costa, Jakic, Sow, Kostic; Lindstrom, Kamada; Borre
We say: FC Koln 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt
Koln's strong home form, and Frankfurt's struggles so far this year, mean we are predicting a narrow win for the hosts on Saturday.
Goals are to be expected between two sides that struggle to keep many clean sheets, whilst they also remain fairly prolific in front of goal at the other end as well.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 45.42%. A win for Eintracht Frankfurt had a probability of 31.05% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.78%) and 2-0 (6.66%). The likeliest Eintracht Frankfurt win was 1-2 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Koln would win this match.
