FC Koln host Holstein Kiel in the Bundesliga relegation playoff on Wednesday, with the visitors looking to gain promotion to the Bundesliga for the first time in the club's history.
Koln, meanwhile, are aiming to avoid a sixth relegation from Germany's top flight this century alone.
Match preview
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Koln have arguably become Germany's main Yo-yo club, with the Cologne-based outfit often bouncing between the Bundesliga and 2.Bundesliga in the past two decades.
Friedhelm Funkel's side dramatically avoided being automatically condemned to Germany's second tier via Sebastiaan Bornauw's 86th-minute winner against already-relegated Schalke 04 on Saturday, with Werder Bremen taking their place in 17th position as a result.
In truth, Koln have improved under the experienced 67-year-old's tutelage, picking up 10 points from his five matches in charge after things went very stale towards the end of Markus Gisdol's reign.
Regardless of whether they prove victorious over two legs against Holstein Kiel and survive, though, Funkel will replaced by current SC Paderborn boss Steffen Baumgart for the beginning of the next campaign.
The 49-year-old will desperately be hoping that he has a top division club to take charge of in July, with Koln heading into uncharted waters for their first relegation playoff tie in the history of the club.
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Holstein Kiel have never been here either, however, with this season's DFB-Pokal semi-finalists closer than ever to competing in the Bundesliga for the first time.
The Storks did win Germany's top flight more than a century ago back in 1912, but that was a long time before the formation of the Bundesliga in 1963. They have generally flickered between being a second and third-tier side ever since.
However, they have thrived under Ole Werner this season, with the 33-year-old guiding the club to a famous penalty shootout victory over Bayern Munich in the second round of the domestic cup before losing 5-0 to Borussia Dortmund in the semi-final.
Werner's side looked on the verge of automatic promotion earlier in the season, too, and indeed could still have achieved that by winning either of their last two matches, but a COVID-19 outbreak stalled their progress and resulted in a congested final few weeks of the campaign.
As such, they ultimately ran out of steam in successive 3-2 defeats to Karlsruher SC and Darmstadt, with Greuther Furth pipping them to the second automatic spot as a result, but they will have a couple of more bites at the cherry against Koln over the next week.
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Team News
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Koln's main striker Sebastian Andersson suffered a knee injury during the victory over Schalke, which is likely to see him miss the first leg, so Ondrej Duda is expected to lead the line instead.
That could mean a more advanced midfield role for Jonas Hector, with Max Meyer potentially looking to dictate play from deep.
Emmanuel Dennis and Elvis Rexhbecaj are both suffering from knocks and may not be risked given the stakes.
Holstein Kiel, meanwhile, will travel to Cologne to play their 10th match in 33 days, so fatigue is likely to be one of Werner's primary concerns.
His attacking hopes are predominantly based around former Bremen forward Fin Bartels and Janni Serra, who has scored six goals in his last eight matches.
Ahmet Arslan, Stefan Thesker and Mikkel Kirkeskov are all ruled out of both legs with serious injuries.
FC Koln possible starting lineup:
Horn; Schmitz, Bornauw, Czichos, Katterbach; Ozcan, Meyer; Wolf, Hector, Kainz; Duda
Holstein Kiel possible starting lineup:
Dahne; Neumann, Wahl, Lorenz, Van Den Bergh; Lee, Meffert, Bieler; Bartels, Serra, Reese
We say: FC Koln 1-0 Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel had the strongest defensive record in 2.Bundesliga this season, so we do not expect to see many goals in what could be a tense and nervy affair.
Koln should have enough quality to take a slender lead to Kiel to protect, though, with their dramatic winner against Schalke at the weekend showing they have a bit of life in them yet.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Holstein Kiel win with a probability of 44.16%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 31.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Holstein Kiel win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.66%) and 0-2 (6.94%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 2-1 (7.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Holstein Kiel would win this match.
