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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barnsley win with a probability of 44.05%. A win for MK Dons had a probability of 28.71% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barnsley win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (8.38%). The likeliest MK Dons win was 0-1 (9.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barnsley would win this match.
Result | ||
Barnsley | Draw | MK Dons |
44.05% ( -0.02) | 27.23% ( -0) | 28.71% ( 0.02) |
Both teams to score 48.05% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43% ( 0.02) | 57% ( -0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.11% ( 0.02) | 77.89% ( -0.02) |
Barnsley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.29% ( 0) | 25.71% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.37% ( -0) | 60.63% ( 0) |
MK Dons Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.68% ( 0.03) | 35.32% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.92% ( 0.03) | 72.07% ( -0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Barnsley | Draw | MK Dons |
1-0 @ 12.33% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.72% 2-0 @ 8.38% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 3.95% 3-0 @ 3.79% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.05% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.34% 4-0 @ 1.29% ( -0) Other @ 2.2% Total : 44.05% | 1-1 @ 12.83% 0-0 @ 9.08% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.54% ( 0) Other @ 0.78% Total : 27.23% | 0-1 @ 9.45% 1-2 @ 6.68% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.92% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.32% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.71% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.57% ( 0) Other @ 2.07% Total : 28.72% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 35 | 18 | 17 | 35 |
2 | Wrexham | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 31 |
3 | Stockport CountyStockport | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29 | 17 | 12 | 30 |
4 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 15 | 11 | 30 |
5 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 26 |
6 | Barnsley | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 26 |
7 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 20 | 3 | 26 |
8 | Reading | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 26 |
9 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 26 |
10 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 24 |
11 | Exeter CityExeter | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 23 |
12 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 29 | 3 | 21 |
13 | Bristol Rovers | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 21 |
14 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 19 |
15 | Stevenage | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 19 |
16 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 18 |
17 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 17 |
18 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 17 |
19 | Blackpool | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 17 |
20 | Crawley TownCrawley | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 16 |
21 | Leyton Orient | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 15 |
22 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 12 |
23 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 11 |
24 | Burton Albion | 15 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 28 | -13 | 8 |
> League One Full Table |