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League One
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League One | Gameweek 25
Jan 2, 2023 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Accrington Stanley

Derby
4 - 0
Accrington

Barkhuizen (7', 46'), Hourihane (16'), McGoldrick (45+2' pen.)
Smith (11'), Sibley (29'), Forsyth (62')
Osula (79')
FT(HT: 3-0)

Whalley (13'), Rodgers (22'), Fernandes (35')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's League One clash between Derby County and Accrington Stanley, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 1-0 Cambridge
Friday, December 30 at 7.45pm in League One

Accrington Stanley

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Morecambe 2-0 Accrington
Thursday, December 29 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Derby County 2-0 Accrington Stanley

 Derby have proven to be a tough team to beat, and after winning their last two home matches, we think that they will continue their impressive home form by recording a victory over an Accrington side who have won only one of their last 11 league games. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 61.03%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 17.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.76%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.26%), while for an Accrington Stanley win it was 0-1 (5.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawAccrington Stanley
61.03% (0.132 0.13) 21.6% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05) 17.37% (-0.085999999999999 -0.09)
Both teams to score 51.47% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.32% (0.052999999999997 0.05)45.68% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32% (0.050999999999998 0.05)68% (-0.052000000000007 -0.05)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.52% (0.057000000000002 0.06)14.48% (-0.058 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.54% (0.112 0.11)42.46% (-0.114 -0.11)
Accrington Stanley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.19% (-0.069000000000003 -0.07)39.81% (0.067 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.52% (-0.062999999999999 -0.06)76.48% (0.061999999999998 0.06)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 61.02%
    Accrington Stanley 17.37%
    Draw 21.6%
Derby CountyDrawAccrington Stanley
1-0 @ 11.13% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 10.76% (0.02 0.02)
2-1 @ 9.91%
3-0 @ 6.93% (0.027 0.03)
3-1 @ 6.39% (0.013 0.01)
4-0 @ 3.35% (0.02 0.02)
4-1 @ 3.09% (0.013 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.94% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-2 @ 1.42% (0.004 0)
5-0 @ 1.29% (0.01 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.19% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 2.62%
Total : 61.02%
1-1 @ 10.26% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 5.77% (-0.013 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.57% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
3-3 @ 0.9% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 21.6%
0-1 @ 5.31% (-0.022 -0.02)
1-2 @ 4.73% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-2 @ 2.45% (-0.015 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.45% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.4% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 2.04%
Total : 17.37%

How you voted: Derby vs Accrington

Derby County
93.1%
Draw
3.4%
Accrington Stanley
3.4%
29
Head to Head
Oct 15, 2022 3pm
Accrington
0-3
Derby
Osula (15', 39'), Barkhuizen (90+8')
Cashin (28')
Jan 26, 2019 12.30pm
Fourth Round
Accrington
0-1
Derby

Barlaser (3')
Barlaser (59')
Waghorn (78')
Bogle (86'), Jozefzoon (90'), Nugent (90')
Bogle (90')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe14102232161632
2Birmingham CityBirmingham1393124121230
3Wrexham1584322111128
4Stockport CountyStockport167632617927
5Barnsley157532419526
6Lincoln CityLincoln157532117426
7Mansfield TownMansfield137332015524
8Huddersfield TownHuddersfield147252114723
9Exeter CityExeter147251410423
10Reading147252221123
11Bolton WanderersBolton147252224-223
12Peterborough UnitedPeterborough156363127421
13Charlton AthleticCharlton145451515019
14Bristol Rovers155371621-518
15Stevenage155371116-518
16Northampton TownNorthampton154561821-317
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham154561418-417
18Blackpool154562128-717
19Wigan AthleticWigan143561212014
20Leyton Orient144281418-414
21Crawley TownCrawley163491427-1313
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge143291324-1111
23Burton Albion141581525-108
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1522111327-148
> League One Full Table


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