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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 45.32%. A win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 28.92% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.13%) and 0-2 (8.03%). The likeliest Accrington Stanley win was 1-0 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
Result | ||
Accrington Stanley | Draw | Derby County |
28.92% | 25.75% | 45.32% ( -0) |
Both teams to score 52.6% ( 0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.81% ( -0) | 51.19% ( -0) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.97% | 73.03% ( -0) |
Accrington Stanley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.9% ( 0) | 32.09% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.43% ( 0) | 68.57% ( -0) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.46% ( -0) | 22.54% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.87% ( -0) | 56.12% |
Score Analysis |
Accrington Stanley | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 8.22% 2-1 @ 6.96% 2-0 @ 4.67% 3-1 @ 2.64% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.96% 3-0 @ 1.77% Other @ 2.7% Total : 28.92% | 1-1 @ 12.24% 0-0 @ 7.24% 2-2 @ 5.19% 3-3 @ 0.98% Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.75% | 0-1 @ 10.77% 1-2 @ 9.13% 0-2 @ 8.03% 1-3 @ 4.53% 0-3 @ 3.99% 2-3 @ 2.58% 1-4 @ 1.69% 0-4 @ 1.49% 2-4 @ 0.96% Other @ 2.16% Total : 45.31% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 19 |
2 | Wrexham | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 17 |
3 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 14 |
4 | Blackpool | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 14 |
5 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
6 | Barnsley | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
7 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 13 |
8 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
9 | Stockport CountyStockport | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 12 |
10 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 12 |
11 | Stevenage | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
12 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 11 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
14 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
15 | Reading | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
16 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
17 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
18 | Leyton Orient | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
19 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
20 | Crawley TownCrawley | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 7 |
21 | Bristol Rovers | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
22 | Burton Albion | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 4 |
23 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
24 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 1 |
> League One Full Table |