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League One
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League One | Gameweek 23
Dec 27, 2022 at 3pm UK
University of Bolton Stadium
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Bolton
0 - 0
Derby


Bradley (61'), Aimson (89')
FT

Forsyth (26')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Bolton Wanderers and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bolton Wanderers

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Bolton 2-0 Exeter
Saturday, December 17 at 3pm in League One

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 4-0 Forest Green
Saturday, December 17 at 3pm in League One

We said: Bolton Wanderers 1-1 Derby County

 The two teams are very evenly matched, as indicated by their league positions, so it is difficult to pick a winner on Boxing Day. As such, we expect that the match will finish as a draw, with both sides maintaining their place in the League One playoffs. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 47.08%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 26.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.05%) and 2-1 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (8.81%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Bolton WanderersDrawDerby County
47.08% (0.90000000000001 0.9) 26.7% (0.061 0.06) 26.22% (-0.956 -0.96)
Both teams to score 47.9% (-0.88099999999999 -0.88)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.64% (-0.784 -0.78)56.36% (0.78599999999999 0.79)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.62% (-0.637 -0.64)77.39% (0.64 0.64)
Bolton Wanderers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.05% (0.085000000000008 0.09)23.95% (-0.082000000000001 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.82% (0.12 0.12)58.18% (-0.118 -0.12)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.99% (-1.225 -1.23)37.01% (1.228 1.23)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.2% (-1.238 -1.24)73.8% (1.242 1.24)
Score Analysis
    Bolton Wanderers 47.07%
    Derby County 26.22%
    Draw 26.7%
Bolton WanderersDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 12.66% (0.4 0.4)
2-0 @ 9.05% (0.313 0.31)
2-1 @ 9% (0.016 0.02)
3-0 @ 4.31% (0.159 0.16)
3-1 @ 4.29% (0.018 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.13% (-0.063 -0.06)
4-0 @ 1.54% (0.06 0.06)
4-1 @ 1.53% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 2.55%
Total : 47.07%
1-1 @ 12.59% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 8.86% (0.264 0.26)
2-2 @ 4.47% (-0.144 -0.14)
Other @ 0.77%
Total : 26.7%
0-1 @ 8.81% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)
1-2 @ 6.26% (-0.217 -0.22)
0-2 @ 4.38% (-0.162 -0.16)
1-3 @ 2.07% (-0.144 -0.14)
2-3 @ 1.48% (-0.099 -0.1)
0-3 @ 1.45% (-0.105 -0.11)
Other @ 1.77%
Total : 26.22%

How you voted: Bolton vs Derby

Bolton Wanderers
38.0%
Draw
24.0%
Derby County
38.0%
50
Head to Head
Apr 13, 2019 3pm
Derby
4-0
Bolton
Bryson (37'), Mount (45', 55', 82')
Johnson (28')

Ameobi (31')
> Match Report
Sep 29, 2018 3pm
Bolton
1-0
Derby
Noone (10')
Magennis (25'), Olkowski (28'), Lowe (45')

Johnson (44')
Apr 7, 2018 3pm
Derby
3-0
Bolton
Pearce (6'), Vydra (33'), Lawrence (54')
Baird (80')

le Fondre (78')
Aug 19, 2017 3pm
Bolton
1-2
Derby
Madine (92')
Karacan (35'), Beevers (57')
Nugent (8', 21')
Wisdom (79')
Apr 9, 2016 3pm
Derby
4-1
Bolton
Russell (13', 77'), Ince (38'), Butterfield (69')
Thorne (81')
Clough (73' pen.)
Vela (21'), Moxey (63')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
1.15am
Buccaneers
@
Chiefs
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham1292123111229
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe1282226161026
3Wrexham1374221101125
4Mansfield TownMansfield127322014624
5Lincoln CityLincoln137332016424
6Bolton WanderersBolton137242219323
7Huddersfield TownHuddersfield137151912722
8Barnsley136432118322
9Reading137152120122
10Stockport CountyStockport135622012821
11Exeter CityExeter126151310319
12Charlton AthleticCharlton135441514119
13Peterborough UnitedPeterborough145362526-118
14Rotherham UnitedRotherham144551416-217
15Stevenage145271015-517
16Blackpool134452125-416
17Bristol Rovers135171520-516
18Northampton TownNorthampton134361720-315
19Wigan AthleticWigan133551211114
20Leyton Orient133281118-711
21Cambridge UnitedCambridge123181117-610
22Crawley TownCrawley133191225-1310
23Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1422101325-128
24Burton Albion120481325-124
> League One Full Table


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