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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crewe Alexandra win with a probability of 49.83%. A win for Sutton United had a probability of 26.61% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crewe Alexandra win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.05%) and 2-0 (7.9%). The likeliest Sutton United win was 1-2 (6.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Crewe Alexandra would win this match.
Result | ||
Crewe Alexandra | Draw | Sutton United |
49.83% ( -0.2) | 23.56% ( 0.05) | 26.61% ( 0.15) |
Both teams to score 58.03% ( -0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.76% ( -0.11) | 43.24% ( 0.11) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.36% ( -0.11) | 65.64% ( 0.11) |
Crewe Alexandra Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.53% ( -0.12) | 17.47% ( 0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.05% ( -0.2) | 47.95% ( 0.2) |
Sutton United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.31% ( 0.05) | 29.69% ( -0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.25% ( 0.06) | 65.75% ( -0.06) |
Score Analysis |
Crewe Alexandra | Draw | Sutton United |
2-1 @ 9.59% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 9.05% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.9% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 5.58% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 4.59% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 3.39% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.43% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 2% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.48% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.83% Total : 49.83% | 1-1 @ 10.98% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.82% ( 0) 0-0 @ 5.19% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.37% ( -0) Other @ 0.2% Total : 23.55% | 1-2 @ 6.67% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 6.3% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 3.82% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 2.7% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.36% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.55% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.21% Total : 26.61% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
9 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 22 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 17 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
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