As the 2021-22 Ligue 1 season heads towards its winter break, runaway leaders Paris Saint-Germain travel North to the Stade Bollaert-Delelis to take on Lens.
The hosts' form has worsened in recent weeks but they remain fifth in the table, just three points off second, but 15 behind their upcoming opponents.
Match preview
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Lens started the campaign in eye-catching fashion, earning 18 points from the opening nine matches, but they have since seen their consistency slip slightly.
While they bounced back from a loss to Montpellier with a 4-1 win over Metz and a defeat to Lyon with a 4-0 thrashing of Troyes, Les Sang et Or have now won just two of their last seven games, and have drawn the most recent two.
Both games ended 2-2, with Angers able to recover after Lens turned the game around, and Clermont equalising twice before hanging on with 10 men in Wednesday's game.
An own goal had given Franck Haise's side the lead after 12 minutes and Seko Fofana restored their advantage early in the second half after the first equaliser, but Mohamed Bayo's eighth of the season levelled things up again and Les Lanciers were able to survive the final six minutes after Yadaly Diaby saw red.
Despite their recent struggles, this remains an impressive campaign for a club only promoted to the top tier 18 months ago. Now, they will face one of their biggest challenges yet, though, as the Parisians head into town.
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PSG may have built up a 12-point lead at the top, but they have rarely made life easy for themselves this season.
They have come from behind to win five times during the first 16 games of this season, and have conceded the first goal on 11 occasions in 2021, which is their highest tally in a calendar year since 2012 (also 11).
In their most recent match - against Nice on Wednesday - nobody scored the opening goal, with both goalkeepers excelling as the match ended in a stalemate.
That is not to say that there were no chances created. Kylian Mbappe probably should have netted at least once, Angel Di Maria spurned a one-on-one and, for the opposition, Kasper Dolberg somehow managed to miss from three yards out, heading against the post with the ball rebounding onto his leg and stopping just next to the goal line.
Perhaps Mauricio Pochettino's side missed Neymar's creativity, but if so, they will have to find a solution quickly as the Brazilian is expected to be out for the best part of eight weeks.
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Team News
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Lens will continue to play without important winger Wesley Said, who remains on the sidelines with a muscle injury, as well as Deiver Machado, who will be out until the New Year.
They were boosted by the return of Arnaud Kalimuendo against Clermont after a suspension, but both he and fellow forward Florian Sotoca drew a blank, which may be enough to convince Haise to bring Gael Kakuta back into the starting XI for this match.
As mentioned, Neymar looks set for another spell on the sidelines, thus putting an end to the long-awaited, short-lived MNM attacking trio for now.
The Brazilian's absence saw the system shuffled slightly, with what was a front four switching to a front three consisting of Mbappe, Di Maria and Lionel Messi. Pochettino may choose to rotate or switch things again after the 0-0 against Nice, however.
Marco Verratti, Mauro Icardi and Georginio Wijnaldum have missed recent games through injury, but have all resumed training this week and may make an appearance on Saturday. Verratti looks the most likely to be ready for a start.
Lens possible starting lineup:
Leca; Gradit, Danso, Medina; Clauss, Doucoure, Fofana, Frankowski; Kakuta; Sotoca, Kalimuendo
Paris Saint-Germain possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Ramos, Mendes; Gueye, Verratti, Paredes; Di Maria, Messi, Mbappe
We say: Lens 1-2 Paris Saint-Germain
Lens have been performing admirably this campaign but have hit a poor spell of form at just the wrong time to be taking on PSG. The Parisians may still be missing some important players, but we are backing them to produce enough to gain a narrow away victory.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 48%. A win for Lens had a probability of 28.91% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.78%) and 0-2 (6.97%). The likeliest Lens win was 2-1 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.
