Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 54.39%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for New York City FC had a probability of 20.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.55%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.71%), while for a New York City FC win it was 0-1 (7.21%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.
Result | ||
FC Cincinnati | Draw | New York City FC |
54.39% ( -1.38) | 24.77% ( 0.54) | 20.85% ( 0.84) |
Both teams to score 47.7% ( -0.35) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.28% ( -1.1) | 53.72% ( 1.1) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.8% ( -0.93) | 75.2% ( 0.94) |
FC Cincinnati Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.3% ( -0.95) | 19.7% ( 0.96) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.29% ( -1.58) | 51.71% ( 1.58) |
New York City FC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.41% ( 0.27) | 40.6% ( -0.26) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.81% ( 0.24) | 77.2% ( -0.23) |
Score Analysis |
FC Cincinnati | Draw | New York City FC |
1-0 @ 12.99% ( 0.17) 2-0 @ 10.55% ( -0.18) 2-1 @ 9.51% ( -0.09) 3-0 @ 5.71% ( -0.28) 3-1 @ 5.15% ( -0.21) 3-2 @ 2.32% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 2.32% ( -0.19) 4-1 @ 2.09% ( -0.15) 4-2 @ 0.94% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.78% Total : 54.38% | 1-1 @ 11.71% ( 0.24) 0-0 @ 8% ( 0.34) 2-2 @ 4.29% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.77% Total : 24.76% | 0-1 @ 7.21% ( 0.36) 1-2 @ 5.28% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 3.25% ( 0.18) 1-3 @ 1.59% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.06) Other @ 1.26% Total : 20.85% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 31 | 19 | 8 | 4 | 69 | 45 | 24 | 65 |
2 | Columbus Crew | 30 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 57 |
3 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 31 | 17 | 5 | 9 | 53 | 41 | 12 | 56 |
4 | Orlando City | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 46 |
5 | New York City FCNY City | 31 | 12 | 8 | 11 | 48 | 44 | 4 | 44 |
6 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 31 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 48 | 44 | 4 | 44 |
7 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 37 | 34 | 3 | 42 |
8 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 58 | 48 | 10 | 37 |
9 | CF MontrealMontreal | 31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 61 | -17 | 37 |
10 | Toronto | 32 | 11 | 4 | 17 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 37 |
11 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 34 |
12 | DC United | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 46 | 63 | -17 | 34 |
13 | Nashville SCNashville | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 31 | 47 | -16 | 33 |
14 | New England RevolutionNew England | 30 | 9 | 4 | 17 | 33 | 60 | -27 | 31 |
15 | Chicago Fire | 32 | 7 | 9 | 16 | 37 | 55 | -18 | 30 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 31 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 63 | 46 | 17 | 58 |
2 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 31 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 62 | 47 | 15 | 52 |
3 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 54 | 41 | 13 | 52 |
4 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 46 | 34 | 12 | 50 |
5 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 31 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 58 | 53 | 5 | 50 |
6 | Houston DynamoHouston | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 43 | 34 | 9 | 48 |
7 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 50 | 41 | 9 | 47 |
8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 64 | 54 | 10 | 45 |
9 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 45 |
10 | Dallas | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 50 | 52 | -2 | 37 |
11 | Austin FCAustin | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 36 |
12 | St Louis City | 31 | 7 | 13 | 11 | 46 | 58 | -12 | 34 |
13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 50 | 61 | -11 | 31 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 31 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 37 | 72 | -35 | 18 |