Major League Soccer

May 5, 2024 at 12.30am UK

BMO Field

Toronto
3 - 1
Dallas

Bernardeschi (45+3', 52'), Longstaff (82')
Gomis (72'), Rosted (90+6')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Junqua (87')
Musa (9'), Twumasi (67')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between Toronto and Dallas, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toronto

All competitions

Last Game: Orlando City 1-2 Toronto
Sunday, April 28 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Dallas

All competitions

Last Game: Dallas 2-0 Houston
Sunday, April 28 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Top scorers

Toronto have been a lot better in close games this season and are getting some great performances out of Sean Johnson in goal, so we expect them to shut down a side in Dallas that are struggling to unlock opposing defensive units. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 44.89%. A win for Dallas had a probability of 29.23% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Dallas win was 0-1 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Toronto would win this match.

Result
Toronto	Draw	Dallas
44.89% ( -0.4)	25.89% ( 0.07)	29.23% ( 0.33)

Both teams to score 52.37% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.44% (

-0.12)

51.56% (

0.12)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.65% (

-0.1)

73.36% (

0.1)

Toronto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.1% (

-0.24)

22.9% (

0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.34% (

-0.35)

56.66% (

0.35)

Dallas Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.93% (

0.19)

32.07% (

-0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.46% (

0.21)

68.54% (

-0.21)

Score Analysis

Toronto 44.88%

Dallas 29.23%

Draw 25.88%

Toronto	Draw	Dallas
1-0 @ 10.82% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.07% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 7.98% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 4.46% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 3.92% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 2.54% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.64% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.44% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.08% Total : 44.88%	1-1 @ 12.31% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 7.34% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.16% ( 0) 3-3 @ 0.96% ( -0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.88%	0-1 @ 8.35% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 7% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 4.75% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 2.65% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.96% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.71% Total : 29.23%