At least one of Moldova and Estonia will collect their first points of World Cup 2026 Qualifying when they lock horns at Stadionul Zimbru on Tuesday evening.
The hosts were torn to shreds by Norway in their opening Group I encounter, shipping five without reply, while the Blueshirts were narrowly beaten 2-1 by Israel.
Match preview
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It will come as little surprise to learn that minnows Moldova have never advanced to a World Cup Finals as an independent country, and the world's 151st-ranked nation are already propping up the Group I standings after just one matchday in the preliminary 2026 cycle.
Five goals from five different scorers - Erling Haaland, Alexander Sorloth, Thelo Aasgaard, Julian Ryerson and Aron Donnum - propelled Norway to an extremely comfortable win over Serghei Clescenco's team on Saturday, one where the Scandinavian giants took a 4-0 lead into the half-time break.
Norway's mauling of Moldova prolonged an abysmal sequence for Tuesday's hosts in World Cup Qualifying, where they have now suffered a horrific 10 straight defeats since managing to hold the Faroe Islands to a 1-1 stalemate in March 2021.
The Tricolours have to go even further back to October 2013 for the last time they emerged triumphant in a World Cup qualifier - a 5-2 trouncing of Montenegro - and they have only ever won three such matches at home since the turn of the millennium.
To say that the odds are stacked against Moldova would be a huge understatement, although Saturday's heavy defeat was just their third loss from their last 11 matches across all competitions, having won promotion to League C of the UEFA Nations League for the 2026-27 tournament.
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Also waiting to earn their World Cup finals baptism as an independent nation, Estonia were not blown to smithereens in the manner that their hosts were in their opening Group I contest, but their valiant efforts against Israel were for nought nonetheless.
Young centre-back Maksim Paskotsi - once of Tottenham Hotspur - scored Estonia's first goal of Qualifying inside just 10 minutes at Israel's adopted Hungarian home, but Karl Hein's own goal and a winner from Eli Dasa 15 minutes from time sent the Blueshirts home empty-handed.
Estonia's opening reverse means that Tuesday's visitors are on their own disheartening losing sequence in World Cup Qualifying, albeit suffering defeat just four times in a row as opposed to Moldova's 10, and they have managed at least one win in every preliminary cycle since 1998.
However, the team led by Jurgen Henn - who are 123rd in the world - are also on a four-match winless run across all competitions and took just four points from 18 on offer in the 2024-25 Nations League, although that haul was still enough for them to retain their League C status.
The Blueshirts can also reflect fondly on previous battles with Moldova, having triumphed in each of their last three encounters with the Tricolours, although Tuesday's clash will be their first battle since a 1-0 friendly win for the visitors in 2008.
Team News
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Moldova's egos may have been bruised by Saturday's Scandinavian slaughter, but the Tricolours did not sustain any fresh injury woes against Norway, so Clescenco should have an identical squad at his disposal.
However, the hosts were dealt a couple pre-match blows before their opening defeat, as 75-cap midfielder Artur Ionita and five-goal striker Vitalie Damascan both had to withdraw from the squad.
Nevertheless, all-time top scorer - Heerenveen's Ion Nicolaescu - is involved and should operate at the tip of a 5-4-1 shape, as he aims to build on the unrivalled 16 goals he has struck for Tuesday's hosts.
In contrast, Estonia have not one, but two new concerns to work around for their second Group I fixture, as midfielder Markus Soomets was dismissed for two bookable offences against Norway and will serve a one-game suspension here.
A nightmare afternoon for number one Hein - on loan at Real Valladolid from Arsenal - also ended prematurely as he was taken off at half time with an injury, so Matvei Igonen is likely to don the gloves in Chisinau.
Soomets's suspension will open the door for either Mihkel Ainsalu or Kevor Palumets to join Markus Poom - the son of one-time Arsenal goalkeeper Mart Poom - in the middle of the pitch.
Moldova possible starting lineup:
Celeadnic; Revenco, Baboglo, Posmac, Craciun, Reabciuk; Cojocaru, Rata, Motpan, Caimacov; Nicolaescu
Estonia possible starting lineup:
Igonen; Peetson, Paskotsi, Kuusk, Larsen; Poom, Palumets; Yakovlev, Kait, Sinyavskiy; Anier
We say: Moldova 1-1 Estonia
Not one of the previous five meetings between Moldova and Estonia has seen more than one goal scored, so entertainment value should be at a minimum between the two whipping boys of Group I.
Hein and Soomets's blows will no doubt harm the Blueshirts' hopes of getting off the mark at the second attempt, though, and we have faith in Moldova to end their 10-game losing run in World Cup Qualifying and claim a point with a gritty defensive display.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Ben Knapton
