Montpellier HSC welcome Lorient to the Stade de la Mosson on Sunday afternoon in the new Ligue 1 season's third round of games.
The visitors face one of the toughest early-season schedules, but currently find themselves six places above their next opponents in the league table.
Match preview
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Montpellier have been scoring goals for fun in their opening two games - unfortunately, however, they have conceded slightly more than they have scored.
A 3-2 defeat to Marseille in the season opener was followed up by another high-scoring match with a six-goal thriller away at Reims last weekend.
Nicolas Cozza gave Montpellier the lead after just five minutes, but Moreto Cassama equalised two minutes later and added a second to give Les Rouges et Blancs the lead.
Andy Delort and Gaetan Laborde then scored a quickfire double to switch things back around again, with all five goals coming before half time.
Michel Der Zakarian's side were unable to hold the lead to the end, though, with substitute Ilan Kebbal on hand to save the day for Reims in the 83rd minute and then almost win it when he hit the post in added time.
The Montpellier games may be full of excitement but Der Zakarian will be frustrated by their lackadaisical defending, which continues from last season when they conceded the most goals outside the bottom five of the table despite finishing up in eighth.
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Lorient were one of those teams in the bottom five - finishing 16th - and did concede more goals than Montpellier, making their start to this campaign all the more impressive.
A solid 1-1 draw away at Saint-Etienne on the opening day was followed by a shock win over last season's title contenders Monaco last Friday.
Comfortable winners on their last three trips to the Stade du Moustoir, Les Monegasques lacked rhythm in the opening exchanges and struggled to get a foothold in the game, with Christophe Pelissier's side looking dangerous on the counter thanks to the pace of Armand Lauriente.
In the end, a first-half penalty won and then converted by Terem Moffi - along with a well-drilled defensive showing - was enough to earn a 1-0 victory and move Lorient up to seventh in the table.
Montpellier have not given them much in recent times - Les Merlus are winless in their last six encounters - but they are now unbeaten since early May and will be high on confidence heading into this game.
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Team News
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Montpellier's first-choice goalkeeper Jonas Omlin looks set to remain on the sidelines with the groin injury which forced him to miss Euro 2020, and there are long-term absences for Pedro Mendes and Ambroise Oyongo with ACL injuries.
Former Liverpool and Crystal Palace centre-back Mamadou Sakho made his debut in the game against Reims and, despite having conceded three goals, looks set to continue as part of the back four in a 4-3-3 setup.
Moffi and Lauriente will surely continue to lead the Lorient line, after their impressive showing against Monaco, in Pelissier's favoured 3-5-2 formation.
There is a long injury list for the manager to contend with, however. Playmaker Quentin Boisgard remains out after contracting COVID-19, and it also appears a little too early for Samuel Loric, Stephane Diarra and Loris Mouyokolo to return.
Jeremy Morel's thigh injury and Quentin Lecoeuche's broken collarbone will take a little longer to heal and the pair are not due back before September.
Montpellier HSC possible starting lineup:
Bertaud; Sambia, Thuler, Sakho, Cozza; Savanier, Ferri, Mollet; Laborde, Delort, Wahi
Lorient possible starting lineup:
Nardi; Laporte, Mendes, Fontaine; Le Goff, Abergel, Lemoine, Monconduit, Silva; Lauriente, Moffi
We say: Montpellier HSC 2-2 Lorient
As mentioned, Lorient will be full of confidence coming into this game, but they are not generally good travellers. They managed just one win on the road last season and suffered 11 defeats, so an away win will be a big ask, especially considering the undeniable talent in the Montpellier ranks.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montpellier HSC win with a probability of 42.39%. A win for Lorient had a probability of 30.43% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (7.89%). The likeliest Lorient win was 0-1 (9.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montpellier HSC would win this match.
