With a victory or draw on Saturday over New York City FC at Saputo Stadium, CF Montreal would book a place in the MLS Cup playoffs for the first time since 2022.
Despite a 2-0 loss versus Charlotte FC the last time out, Le CFM are in control of their playoff destiny, currently ninth in the Eastern Conference, while the Pigeons have already booked their place in the post-season, defeating Nashville SC in their previous encounter 3-1.
Match preview
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Right in the nick of time, Montreal moved up the table, claiming at least a point in five of their previous six domestic affairs.
Because of that, Laurent Courtois's men will qualify for the post-season with just a single point on Saturday and can also make it should Atlanta United and the Philadelphia Union drop points in their final match.
Montreal have only won one of their previous three Decision Day fixtures, claiming a victory in their final 2022 regular-season encounter versus Inter Miami (3-1).
Their last three MLS matches at Saputo Stadium have ended with a triumph for the home side, who have collected back-to-back clean sheets on home soil.
A victory this weekend would not only guarantee them a place in the MLS Cup playoffs, but it would also exceed their points total from the previous campaign (41).
Le CFM have yet to beat a New York-based club in MLS this season, though they managed to avoid defeat in their two meetings against the New York Red Bulls.
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Over in the Bronx, the Boys in Blue are back in the playoffs after missing out for only the second time in club history a season ago.
On their current three-match MLS winning run, the Pigeons have come to life in the attacking third, scoring three or more goals each time.
Nick Cushing's men are still in the running for home-field advantage in the opening round of the playoffs, sitting two points behind Orlando City heading into Decision Day.
Thanks to their victory over Nashville, New York City reached the 50-point plateau, giving them nine more than a year ago.
They have four victories away from home in the 2024 regular season, three more than last year, and have a chance on Saturday to win consecutive away fixtures in this competition for the second time this season.
NYCFC are unbeaten in their last seven meetings with Montreal across all competitions, failing to concede in the last three outings against them, while winning their previous two visits to Saputo Stadium.
Team News
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A thigh injury to Lassi Lappalainen has kept him on the Montreal sidelines for weeks, and that is unlikely to change on Saturday, while Nathan-Dylan Saliba must sit this one out due to yellow card accumulation.
They will have Joel Waterman and Jonathan Sirois available for this critical encounter after they were each called up to the Canada squad for a friendly with Panama.
In their defeat versus Charlotte, Courtois made two changes to his starting 11, with Gabriele Corbo and Sunusi Ibrahim replacing Fernando Alvarez and Josef Martinez.
Versus Nashville, New York City were missing Malachi Jones due to a broken tibia, Keaton Parks played the full 90 despite previously hurting his hamstring, and his usual partner in holding midfield, James Sands, is eligible to return from suspension.
There will be a handful of Piegons returning from the international break, such as leading goalscorer Alonso Martinez, Tomas Romero, Jovan Mijatovic, Mitja Ilenic, Tayvon Gray and Andrew Baiera.
Martinez scored another goal in their previous encounter, the fourth for him in his last three MLS contests, while Santiago Rodriguez notched a brace, his third in two games.
CF Montreal possible starting lineup:
Sirois; Campbell, Waterman, Alvarez; Marshall-Rutty, Piette, Duke, Edwards; Opoku, Clark; J. Martinez
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Freese; Gray, Martins, Risa, O'Toole; Parks, Sands; Wolf, Rodriguez, Ojeda; A. Martinez
We say: CF Montreal 2-1 New York City FC
Despite their form against the Pigeons in recent times and the fact that NYCFC have plenty to play for, we are going with the home side.
Le CFM have essentially been in must-win mode over the past few weeks and delivered more often than not, which has us believing they can claim a victory when they need it most.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
