Looking to widen the gap to the Primeira Liga drop zone, Nacional host struggling Estrela Amadora in a round 28 clash on Sunday.
The White and Black sit five places and six points clear of the relegation playoff spot, having collected 29 points from eight wins, five draws and 14 defeats, while the visitors currently occupy that position.
Match preview
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Nacional's inconsistency resurfaced last weekend as they failed to build on their victory over Casa Pia, suffering a setback with a 1-0 result against Santa Clara.
Tiago Margarido's side have alternated between wins and losses in their last five outings, failing to find the net in each of those three defeats, yet their overall trajectory has shown improvement.
Since the turn of the year, Nacional have won five matches, scoring at least twice in each, and have amassed 16 points in this period — three more than they managed in their 16 games in 2024.
Aside from a 2-1 home defeat to Arouca, all four of the Nationalists' losses in 2025 have come on the road against teams in the top five, while they have fared well against sides battling for survival.
During this period, Nacional have faced two teams sitting below them at the start of a gameweek, winning both encounters against SC Farense and AVS, making this weekend's clash against another relegation-threatened side tilt in their favour.
Alvinegros have secured 13 points from their six home matches in 2025, further reinforcing their stronghold ahead of Sunday's fixture.
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For Estrela, a trip to a ground where Nacional have been formidable comes at a difficult time, with the visitors winless in their last five outings, suffering back-to-back losses without finding the net.
After grinding out three consecutive draws, the Tricolours fell to a 2-0 defeat against Vitoria de Guimaraes before being comprehensively beaten 3-0 by league leaders Sporting Lisbon last time out.
Estrela's last taste of victory came on February 14, when they edged bottom-placed Boavista, ending a run of two draws and four losses, yet it remains their only triumph in the last 12 games.
As a result, Jose Faria's side have accumulated just 23 points from five wins, eight draws and 14 defeats, placing them in the relegation playoff spot, level on points with 15th-placed AVS, with both teams having scored 21 goals and conceded 41 times.
Only seven of Estrela's points have come on the road, where they have played 13 matches, scoring just five goals while shipping 19, leaving them with the second-worst away record — an ominous statistic heading into Sunday's trip.
However, one positive for the visitors is their recent success in this fixture, having won two of the last three meetings, including a 2-0 victory in the reverse encounter.
Team News
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El Hadji Djibril Soumare, a key figure in Nacional's midfield, will miss this match due to suspension after receiving a late red card last time out.
Matheus Dias is likely to step in for the Senegalese, joining Luis Esteves and Daniel Penha in the midfield trio.
Ruben Macedo made an impact off the bench in the previous outing, and he could be handed a starting role on the flank, potentially replacing either Dudu Teodora or Paulinho Boia.
On the injury front, Miguel Baeza and Dyego Sousa remain sidelined, while Ze Victor is doubtful after coming off injured against Santa Clara, with the availability of Ivanildo Fernandes and Jose Gomes also uncertain.
Estrela will be without four players due to suspension, as Ruben Lima and Guilherme Montoia serve bans following their red cards against Sporting, while Alan Ruiz is also ruled out for disciplinary reasons.
Additionally, Ferro accumulated a milestone of bookings in the last match and will not feature, paving the way for Issiar Drame to slot in alongside Renato Pantalon and Miguel Lopes.
Tiago Mamede and Leo Cordeiro remain out through injury, while Nilton Varela and Amine Oudrhiri are doubtful for Sunday's clash.
Nacional possible starting lineup:
Franca; Appiah, Ulises, Santos, Garcia; Esteves, Dias, Labidi; Boia, Isaac, Marcedo
Estrela Amadora possible starting lineup:
Costa; Lopes, Pantalon, Drame; Mina, Oudrhiri, Moreire, Varela; Kikas, Pinho, Cabral
We say: Nacional 2-0 Estrela Amadora
In the last four of the five meetings between these sides, only one team has found the net, and that trend is expected to persist, with Nacional likely to come out on top with their strong home form, coupled with Estrela's ongoing struggles in front of goal, making the outcome even more likely.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Adeyeye Oluwapelumi
