We said: Estrela Amadora 1-2 Santa Clara
Santa Clara have defied all expectations so far in their first campaign back in the top flight this season, and they are currently on course to post their best-ever finish.
Additionally, they are unbeaten in their last three away meetings, with two wins and a draw, so we are backing them to claim a narrow 2-1 win over a home side that has not recorded consecutive league wins since October 2023.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santa Clara win with a probability of 53.42%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 19.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santa Clara win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.35%) and 1-2 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.1%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 1-0 (8.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.