Two sides desperately needing to turn their fortunes around in Ligue 1 will do battle at the Stade de la Beaujoire as Nantes play host to Strasbourg on Sunday afternoon.
The hosts were put to the sword by Marseille in a 3-1 defeat last time out, whereas Strasbourg managed to hold Rennes to a 1-1 draw in gameweek 12.
Match preview
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Despite Marseille's troubles in Europe, Les Olympiens have stamped their authority on the league and Nantes became the latest victims of the Champions League contenders last Saturday.
Each member of Marseille's attacking trio got in on the act, with Florian Thauvin and Dimitri Payet both netting before Dario Benedetto opened his account for the campaign from the penalty spot, with Nantes adding a late consolation through Ludovic Blas at the Orange Velodrome.
Christian Gourcuff has now witnessed his side go three games without a win in the French top flight, with Les Canaris sharing the spoils with Metz and Lens in two successive 1-1 draws last month, although two losses in their last six is not cause for panic by any means for Nantes.
This weekend's hosts have a prime opportunity to register a vital three points against a struggling Strasbourg outfit this weekend, and Gourcuff's men - who currently occupy 14th spot in the table - could leapfrog Bordeaux and Metz into 12th should both teams lose to Brest and Lyon respectively.
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Meanwhile, Strasbourg were unable to lift themselves any further away from danger against Rennes, although Thierry Laurey's men deserve immense credit for holding the Champions League contenders to a 1-1 draw despite going down to 10 men in the first half.
Stefan Mitrovic deservedly saw red for hauling down Serhou Guirassy - by which point Strasbourg were already 1-0 up courtesy of Adrien Thomasson's opener - but Rennes took a share of the spoils as Guirassy's replacement Adrien Hunou headed home in the second 45.
The story could have been entirely different had James Lea Siliki not spurned a golden opportunity to win the game for Rennes in the dying moments, but Strasbourg held on for a point which leaves them 19th in the table - although they are only ahead of basement side Dijon on goal difference after they picked up their first win of the season over Nice last time out.
However, that draw ended a run of three straight defeats in Ligue 1 for Strasbourg, who will now be without the banned Mitrovic as they look to avoid shipping more goals against Nantes - with the 24 that Les Coureurs have already conceded being the highest in the league.
Nevertheless, Strasbourg have come out on top in their last three meetings with Nantes in all competitions, including a 1-0 win on the Canaris' turf in last season's Coupe de la Ligue.
Nantes Ligue 1 form: WLWDDL
Strasbourg Ligue 1 form: LWLLLD
Team News
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Nantes's medical room is rather empty at the moment, with Roli Pereira de Sa and Anthony Limbombe the hosts' only two injury concerns, and neither player would be likely to force their way into Gourcuff's starting lineup.
Charles Traore is yet to make his return from a positive coronavirus diagnosis, but even if the left-back is cleared for the weekend, it is difficult to see Fabio dropping out.
Moses Simon made his highly-anticipated return to action off the bench against Marseille and could be handed a start in this one.
As mentioned, Strasbourg will have to make do without Mitrovic following his sending-off against Rennes, with Laurey now in a predicament when it comes to who will partner Mohamed Simakan in central defence.
Jean-Eudes Aholou is also out for this one, but Alexander Djiku could make a timely return to the fold, while Bingourou Kamara should reprise his regular spot in goal.
However, midfielder Jean-Ricner Bellegarde is not expected to be involved after sustaining a thigh injury in training.
Nantes possible starting lineup:
Lafont; Corchia, Pallois, Girotto, Fabio; Chirivella, Toure; Louza, Blas, Simon; Kolo Muani
Strasbourg possible starting lineup:
Kamara; Lala, Simakan, Djiku, Caci; Sissoko, Prcic, Lienard; Thomasson; Diallo, Ajorque
We say: Nantes 2-1 Strasbourg
Strasbourg were ultimately fortunate to take a point off of Rennes, but keeping Les Rouge et Noir at bay for the best part of an entire half with 10 men is no mean feat. Nantes have been showing signs of improvement in recent weeks and Strasbourg are hit with absentees in defence, so we think Les Canaris will do enough to edge this one.
Top betting tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nantes win with a probability of 44.62%. A win for Strasbourg had a probability of 29.4% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nantes win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.95%). The likeliest Strasbourg win was 0-1 (8.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.
