National League South | Gameweek 19
Nov 13, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
The Mill Field
Aveley1 - 2Chelmsford City
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Bath City 3-0 Aveley
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in National League South
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in National League South
Goals
for
for
26
Last Game: Chelmsford City 2-2 Chippenham
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in National League South
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in National League South
Goals
for
for
23
We said: Aveley 1-1 Chelmsford City
There is not a huge difference when it comes to the quality of these sides, and we are expecting a competitive match on Monday night. A draw would not be the worst result in the world for either team, and both managers could be forced to accept a share of the spoils in the Essex derby. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelmsford City win with a probability of 40.47%. A win for Aveley had a probability of 33.47% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelmsford City win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.65%) and 0-2 (6.94%). The likeliest Aveley win was 1-0 (8.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chelmsford City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aveley | Draw | Chelmsford City |
33.47% ( -0.25) | 26.05% ( 0.06) | 40.47% ( 0.18) |
| Both teams to score 53.61% ( -0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
