Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wrexham win with a probability of 54.21%. A win for Aldershot Town had a probability of 22.99% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wrexham win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.53%) and 0-2 (8.77%). The likeliest Aldershot Town win was 2-1 (5.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wrexham would win this match.
Result | ||
Aldershot Town | Draw | Wrexham |
22.99% ( 0.03) | 22.79% ( 0.02) | 54.21% ( -0.05) |
Both teams to score 56.7% ( -0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.81% ( -0.05) | 43.19% ( 0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.41% ( -0.05) | 65.59% ( 0.05) |
Aldershot Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.39% ( 0) | 32.61% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.85% ( 0) | 69.15% |
Wrexham Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.13% ( -0.03) | 15.87% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.91% ( -0.06) | 45.08% ( 0.07) |
Score Analysis |
Aldershot Town | Draw | Wrexham |
2-1 @ 5.98% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 5.8% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 3.25% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.23% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.06% ( -0) 3-0 @ 1.21% ( 0) Other @ 2.46% Total : 22.99% | 1-1 @ 10.67% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.51% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.18% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.26% ( -0) Other @ 0.18% Total : 22.79% | 1-2 @ 9.83% ( -0) 0-1 @ 9.53% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 8.77% ( -0) 1-3 @ 6.03% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 5.38% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.38% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2.77% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 2.48% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.55% ( -0) 1-5 @ 1.02% ( -0) 0-5 @ 0.91% ( -0) Other @ 2.57% Total : 54.21% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Barnet | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 27 |
2 | York City | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 25 |
3 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 24 |
4 | Rochdale | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 23 |
5 | Gateshead | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 23 |
6 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 23 |
7 | Eastleigh | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 21 |
8 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 19 |
9 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 18 |
10 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 13 | 7 | 17 |
11 | Halifax TownHalifax | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 17 |
12 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 15 |
13 | Woking | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 15 |
14 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 15 |
15 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 14 |
16 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 14 |
17 | Tamworth | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 14 |
18 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 13 |
19 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 11 |
20 | Braintree TownBraintree | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 10 |
21 | Boston UnitedBoston | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 9 |
22 | Fylde | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 9 |
23 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
24 | Ebbsfleet | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 25 | -16 | 5 |
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