Kosovo have had great difficulty in recent years at performing when being the favourites to win, especially in Euro 2024 qualifying, and they could be in for a frustrating evening against a rejuvenated Cyprus side.
The hosts ended a five-year wait for an away win on Friday, and they have been strong at home in previous editions of the Nations League, so cannot be underestimated here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kosovo win with a probability of 64.38%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Cyprus had a probability of 13.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kosovo win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.39%) and 1-2 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.21%), while for a Cyprus win it was 1-0 (5.6%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kosovo would win this match.
0.63) 
-1.1) 
