UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League A

Sep 23, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

Italy
1 - 0
England

Raspadori (68')
Bonucci (48'), Di Lorenzo (80')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Grealish (90+4')

Gareth Southgate insists England are heading in right direction

Gareth Southgate insists that England are heading in the right direction despite being relegated from League A of the UEFA Nations League.

Sep 24, 17:25

Harry Maguire in action for England on September 23, 2022

Harry Maguire defends continued England selection

Manchester United defender Harry Maguire defends Gareth Southgate's decision to include him in the England starting lineup.

Sep 24, 13:52

England experiencing worst run of form since 1992 and longest drought since 2000

Italy's 1-0 UEFA Nations League win over England ensures the Three Lions are now experiencing their worst run of form since 1992.

Sep 23, 23:14

Giacomo Raspadori celebrates scoring for Italy against England on September 23, 2022

England suffer Nations League relegation after Italy defeat

England are relegated to League B in the UEFA Nations League after succumbing to a 1-0 defeat to Italy in a drab affair at San Siro.

Sep 23, 21:40

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Italy

Last Six:

Comp:

Last Game: Germany 5-2 Italy
Tuesday, June 14 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League A3 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Hungary	4	4	7
2	Germany	4	3	6
3	Italy	4	-2	5
4	England	4	-5	2

England

Last Six:

Comp:

Last Game: England 0-4 Hungary
Tuesday, June 14 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League A3 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Hungary	4	4	7
2	Germany	4	3	6
3	Italy	4	-2	5
4	England	4	-5	2

Both Italy and England are a far cry from where they were at Euro 2020, so Southgate and Mancini ought to feel that their opposite number is there for the taking this week, and the hosts can play with the handbrake off given their lack of World Cup commitments. The Three Lions will likely be forced to pack their bags and prepare for life in League B should they fail to win at San Siro, but an out-of-sorts Azzurri are still a force to be reckoned with on home soil, and we can only envisage this one ending level. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 42.71%. A win for England had a probability of 31.1% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest England win was 0-1 (8.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Italy in this match.

Result
Italy	Draw	England
42.71% ( -0.04)	26.19% ( -0.06)	31.1% ( 0.1)

Both teams to score 52.37% (

0.23)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.99% (

0.28)

52.01% (

-0.28)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.25% (

0.24)

73.75% (

-0.24)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.85% (

0.11)

24.15% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.53% (

0.15)

58.47% (

-0.15)

England Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.04% (

0.21)

30.96% (

-0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.74% (

0.24)

67.26% (

-0.25)

Score Analysis

Italy 42.71%

England 31.1%

Draw 26.18%

Italy	Draw	England
1-0 @ 10.62% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 8.85% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.55% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 4.19% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 3.57% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.46% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.49% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.27% ( 0) Other @ 2.71% Total : 42.71%	1-1 @ 12.45% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 7.48% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 5.19% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.18%	0-1 @ 8.77% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 7.3% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 5.14% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.85% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.03% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 2.01% ( 0.01) Other @ 3% Total : 31.1%