Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 45.16%. A win for Netherlands had a probability of 31.02% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.09%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Netherlands win was 1-2 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 11% likelihood.
