MX23RW : Monday, November 4 20:34:51| >> :600:171856:171856:
[monks data]
Italy national football team
Nations League | League A
Oct 14, 2020 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Netherlands national football team

Italy
1 - 1
Netherlands

Pellegrini (16')
Verratti (23'), D'Ambrosio (80'), Kean (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-1)

Preview: Italy vs. Netherlands - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's UEFA Nations League clash between Italy and the Netherlands, including team news and predicted lineups.

Heavyweight nations Italy and the Netherlands will be looking to put goalless draws behind them when they meet in the UEFA Nations League in Bergamo on Wednesday evening.

Italy were held by Poland and the Netherlands played out a stalemate with Bosnia-Herzegovina, leaving Group A1 wide open at the midway stage.


Match preview

Sunday's bore draw with Bosnia means that Frank de Boer is still awaiting his first victory since succeeding Ronald Koeman as Netherlands head coach.

De Boer kicked off his reign with a disappointing 1-0 friendly defeat to Mexico last week, and the display in Zenica four days later was not much better.

The Oranje are now winless in three games without scoring, with Luuk de Jong coming closest to changing that against Bosnia by forcing Ibrahim Sehic into a fine save.

The Netherlands did beat Poland 1-0 in their opening Group A1 game in September, however, giving them four points from their opening three matches.

That is one point fewer than Italy, who top the standings despite a stalemate of their own on Sunday.

Italy's Stephan El Shaarawy celebrates scoring against Moldova in an international friendly on October 7, 2020© Reuters

Federico Chiesa had Italy's best chance of the match in Gdansk, firing wide from close range in a game of few clear-cut opportunities at either end.

The Azzurri's blunt attacking display was in stark contrast to four days prior when putting six unanswered goals past minnows Moldova in a friendly match.

Roberto Mancini's side have now drawn two and won one of their three Group A1 matches, while overall their unbeaten run spans spans 18 matches since September 2018.

Italy have the better overall record in previous meetings with the Netherlands, too, winning nine and losing three of their past 22 encounters.

Indeed, the Dutch are without a victory in six meetings with Italy since a 3-0 win in their opening fixture at Euro 2008.

Italy Nations League form: DWD
Italy form (all competitions): WWDWWD

Netherlands Nations League form: WLD
Netherlands form (all competitions): DWWLLD


Team News

Netherlands's Steven Bergwijn celebrates scoring against Poland in the UEFA Nations League on September 4, 2020© Reuters

Memphis Depay missed the Bosnia draw through suspension but is back in contention here and will likely lead the line in place of De Jong.

Georginio Wijnaldum was the only midfield player to retain his place in the side between the loss to Mexico and draw with Bosnia, but it is unlikely that he will be given a rest.

After being brought on as a second-half sub in Zenica, Steven Berghuis will be pushing for inclusion out wide on Wednesday.

As for Italy, Mancini made seven changes last time out, with Andrea Belotti, Lorenzo Pellegrini and Chiesa coming into the side.

Ciro Immobile was surprisingly kept on the bench, perhaps with one eye on this match with the Netherlands, while defender Giorgio Chiellini is another who is pushing for a recall.

Stephan El Shaarawy is battling with Pellegrini and Chiesa for a starting spot out wide, assuming Mancini sticks with his favoured 4-3-3 setup.

Italy possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Florenzi, Bonucci, Chiellini, Biraghi; Verratti, Jorginho, Barella; Chiesa, Immobile, El Shaarawy

Netherlands possible starting lineup:
Cillessen; Dumfries, De Vrij, Van Dijk, Blind; De Roon, De Jong, Wijnaldum; Berghuis, Depay, Promes


SM words green background

We say: Italy 2-1 Netherlands

De Boer told his players to "look at themselves in the mirror" following Sunday's stalemate with Bosnia, which saw his side go a third game without scoring.

Italy also fired a blank last time out but have otherwise netted freely of late and enter this game unbeaten in 18 - a run which we can see them extending with a big win in midweek.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 45.16%. A win for Netherlands had a probability of 31.02% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.09%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Netherlands win was 1-2 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 11% likelihood.


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Game History

Who will win Wednesday's UEFA Nations League clash between Italy and Netherlands?

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Draw
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Netherlands
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2 Croatia Croatia42117
3 Poland Poland41124
4 Scotland flag Scotland40131

League A2

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1 Italy Italy431010
2 France France43019
3 Belgium Belgium41124
4 Israel Israel40040

League A3

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1 Germany Germany431010
2 Netherlands Netherlands41215
3 Hungary Hungary41215
4 Bosnia Bosnia H'vina40131

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2 Denmark Denmark42117
3 Serbia Serbia41124
4 Switzerland Switzerland40131

League B1

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2 Georgia Georgia42026
3 Albania national flag Albania42026
4 Ukraine Ukraine41124

League B2

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2 England flag England43019
3 Ireland Rep. Ireland41033
4 Finland Finland40040

League B3

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2 Austria Austria42117
3 Slovenia Slovenia42117
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League B4

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3 Iceland Iceland41124
4 Montenegro Montenegro40040

League C1

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2 Slovakia Slovakia431010
3 Estonia Estonia41033
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League C2

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2 Kosovo flag Kosovo43019
3 Cyprus Cyprus41033
4 Lithuania Lithuania40040

League C3

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2 Belarus Belarus41306
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4 Luxembourg flag Luxembourg40222

League C4

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1 Macedonia N. Macedonia431010
2 Armenia Armenia41124
3 Latvia Latvia41124
4 Faroe Islands Faroe Islands40313

League D1

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League D2

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