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UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League
Scotland national football team
Nations League | League A
Nov 15, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Hampden Park
Croatia national football team

Scotland
1 - 0
Croatia

McGinn (86')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Sucic (30'), Caleta-Car (41'), Kramaric (44')
Sucic (44')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Nations League clash between Scotland and Croatia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Scotland

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Scotland 0-0 Portugal
Tuesday, October 15 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Croatia

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Poland 3-3 Croatia
Tuesday, October 15 at 7.45pm in Nations League

We said: Scotland 1-1 Croatia

 Croatia can afford to play with a certain amount of freedom, as qualification is within their own hands, while Scotland are feeling the weight of public expectation. Performances have improved, but the Tartan Army may have to wait a while longer to celebrate an elusive home win, given their opponents' combination of guile and steel. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 51.81%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Scotland had a probability of 23.71%.

The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.62%) and 0-2 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.64%), while for a Scotland win it was 1-0 (7.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.

Result
ScotlandDrawCroatia
23.71% (-0.353 -0.35) 24.48% (-0.047999999999998 -0.05) 51.81% (0.407 0.41)
Both teams to score 52.08% (-0.238 -0.24)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.29% (-0.121 -0.12)49.71% (0.127 0.13)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.28% (-0.108 -0.11)71.72% (0.114 0.11)
Scotland Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.44% (-0.384 -0.38)35.56% (0.389 0.39)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.67% (-0.399 -0.4)72.33% (0.404 0.4)
Croatia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.83% (0.116 0.12)19.17% (-0.111 -0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.16% (0.188 0.19)50.83% (-0.182 -0.18)
Score Analysis
    Scotland 23.71%
    Croatia 51.81%
    Draw 24.48%
ScotlandDrawCroatia
1-0 @ 7.05% (-0.038 -0.04)
2-1 @ 6.02% (-0.076000000000001 -0.08)
2-0 @ 3.64% (-0.059 -0.06)
3-1 @ 2.07% (-0.048 -0.05)
3-2 @ 1.71% (-0.034 -0.03)
3-0 @ 1.26% (-0.033 -0.03)
Other @ 1.96%
Total : 23.71%
1-1 @ 11.64% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 6.82% (0.035 0.04)
2-2 @ 4.97% (-0.044 -0.04)
3-3 @ 0.94% (-0.015 -0.02)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 24.48%
0-1 @ 11.26% (0.1 0.1)
1-2 @ 9.62% (0.016 0.02)
0-2 @ 9.3% (0.113 0.11)
1-3 @ 5.3% (0.028 0.03)
0-3 @ 5.12% (0.08 0.08)
2-3 @ 2.74% (-0.015 -0.01)
1-4 @ 2.19% (0.019 0.02)
0-4 @ 2.12% (0.041 0.04)
2-4 @ 1.13% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 3.04%
Total : 51.81%

How you voted: Scotland vs Croatia

Scotland
24.6%
Draw
19.0%
Croatia
56.4%
211
Head to Head
Oct 12, 2024 5pm
League A
Croatia
2-1
Scotland
Matanovic (36'), Kramaric (70')
Pasalic (19'), Perisic (39')
Christie (33')
Hanley (8'), Gilmour (90+4')
> Match Report
Jun 22, 2021 8pm
Group Stage
Croatia
3-1
Scotland
Vlasic (17'), Modric (62'), Perisic (77')
Lovren (26')
McGregor (42')
McKenna (34')
> Match Report
Oct 15, 2013 8pm
Qualifiers
Scotland
2-0
Croatia
> Match Report
Jun 7, 2013 7.15pm
Qualifiers
Croatia
0-1
Scotland
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
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