Nations League | Semi-Finals
Jun 15, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
De Grolsch Veste
Spain2 - 1Italy
The Match
Match Report
Spain book their spot in the final of the 2022-23 UEFA Nations League courtesy of a 2-1 victory over Italy, with Joselu netting a late winner for La Roja.
Preview
Sports Mole previews Thursday's Nations League semi-final between Spain and Italy, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Predicted Lineups
Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Spain could line up for Thursday's UEFA Nations League semi-final against Italy.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Scotland 2-0 Spain
Tuesday, March 28 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Tuesday, March 28 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 42.98%. A win for Italy had a probability of 31.15% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Italy win was 0-1 (8.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Spain would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Spain | Draw | Italy |
42.98% ( -0.05) | 25.87% ( 0.06) | 31.15% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 53.4% ( -0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.32% ( -0.25) | 50.68% ( 0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.41% ( -0.22) | 72.58% ( 0.22) |
| Spain Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.56% ( -0.13) | 23.44% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 42.56% ( -0.19) | 57.44% ( 0.19) |
| Italy Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.75% ( -0.14) | 30.25% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 33.58% ( -0.16) | 66.42% ( 0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
Spain 42.97%
Italy 31.15%
Draw 25.86%
| Spain | Draw | Italy |
| 1-0 @ 10.28% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 8.92% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 7.46% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.32% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3.61% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.58% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.57% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.31% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 2% Total : 42.97% | 1-1 @ 12.29% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.09% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 5.33% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.86% | 0-1 @ 8.48% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 7.35% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 5.07% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.93% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.02% ( -0)Other @ 3.17% Total : 31.15% |
How you voted: Spain vs Italy
Spain
58.0%Draw
15.2%Italy
26.8%224
Head to Head
Oct 6, 2021 7.45pm
Semi-Finals
Italy
1-2
Spain
Sep 2, 2017 7.45pm
Oct 6, 2016 7.45pm
Jun 27, 2016 5pm
Round of 16
Italy
2-0
Spain
Form Guide
Build-up
How Spain could line up against Italy
Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Spain could line up for Thursday's UEFA Nations League semi-final against Italy.
2 years ago
How Italy could line up against Spain
Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Italy could line up for Thursday's UEFA Nations League semi-final against Spain.
2 years ago
Alessandro Bastoni withdraws from Italy squad ahead of Spain clash
Inter Milan defender Alessandro Bastoni withdraws from the Italy squad ahead of Thursday's UEFA Nations League semi-final clash with Spain due to illness.
2 years ago
