In what will be an all-or-nothing game for the home side, New York City FC need a victory against the Chicago Fire on Saturday at Citi Field to have any hope of making the MLS Cup playoffs.
A 2-0 loss at DC United has put the Pigeons in a difficult position heading into Decision Day, needing a win combined with a slip-up by the New York Red Bulls and Charlotte FC to claim a Wild card berth, while Chicago need a victory and the Red Bulls to drop points to book a spot in that round following a 2-0 defeat versus Charlotte.
Match preview
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In a game billed up as one they had to have, the Boys in Blue came out flat on the road to DC United as the home side looked dangerous throughout the match.
Ultimately, they could not handle the physicality and aggressive approach from the Black and Red and now many things need to go their way if New York City are to make the playoffs for an eighth successive campaign.
The Pigeons are back in Queens on Saturday, the site of their last league triumph (2-0 over Orlando City) and where they have claimed 10 points on the year.
Single points are better than none, but for NYCFC, all of their draws domestically in 2023 could be their undoing, as they have been in a winning position in the second half of four encounters this season only to have to settle for a tie each time and those eight points dropped could have done them a world of good.
Nick Cushing's men have been relatively tidy defensively at home this season, allowing just one goal in their previous five domestic outings at Yankee Stadium, Red Bull Arena or Citi Field, including three consecutive clean sheets.
NYCFC have never lost a home fixture against Chicago in the regular season, conceding just once the last five times they have hosted them.
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Chicago came into their 33rd encounter of the MLS season with their playoff destiny in their hands but failed to get the job done.
That defeat ended a three-match unbeaten run for Frank Klopas's side, who are trying to make the post-season for the first time since 2017.
The Fire have not been able to claim many points away from home in MLS this year, with 16 points including just four victories, while they have suffered the third-most road defeats in the Eastern Conference this season (nine).
In their previous away contest, though, the Fire defeated the New York Red Bulls 1-0, only the fourth time in 2023 that they did not concede on the road and the first time they had defeated either New York-based side away from home since 2021 (1-0 win versus the Red Bulls).
Throughout the 2023 domestic campaign, this team have struggled in the attacking third away from home, failing to score in eight encounters while netting only once on five occasions.
Eight times this season, the Fire have had a second-half advantage and failed to maintain it, resulting in 18 points being dropped.
Team News
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Maxi Moralez will not be back for NYCFC this season after injuring his ACL, while Tayvon Gray should be back from international duty, where he featured in Jamaica's 4-1 victory over Grenada and was on the bench for their win over Haiti (3-2), which enabled the Reggae Boyz to advance into the quarter-finals of the CONCACAF Nations League.
In their previous encounter, Matt Freese gave up multiple goals in a game for the first time since May (3-1 defeat to FC Cincinnati), while Santiago Rodriguez had a two-match goal contribution run end against DC.
The last time they played at Citi Field, Monsef Bakrar and Talles Magno found the back of the net in an impressive 2-0 victory over Orlando City.
Gaston Gimenez will be suspended for this critical encounter after incurring another yellow card in their previous match, while Chicago are likely also to be missing Kei Kamara (spine), Jairo Torres (right upper leg), Federico Navarro (left lower leg), Mauricio Pineda (right lower leg), Victor Bezerra (right lower leg) and Chris Mueller (right upper leg) because of injuries.
Xherdan Shaqiri should be back in time for this encounter despite being called up to the Swiss national team for their Euro qualifiers, as should Chris Brady and Brian Gutierrez, who were with the American Under-21 squad in Arizona, though Miguel Navarro (Venezuela) and Georgios Koutsias (Greece Under-21) were called up to their respective national teams this week and might not be ready to play on Saturday given the lengthy travel.
When they faced NYCFC at home earlier this year, a 75th-minute strike from Fabian Herbers enabled the Fire to salvage a 1-1 draw.
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Freese; Gray, Martins, Risa, O'Toole; Perea, Sands; Jasson, Rodriguez, Ledezma; Bakrar
Chicago Fire possible starting lineup:
Brady; Dean, Teran, Czichos, Aceves; Casas, Doumbia; Herbers, Shaqiri, Haile-Selassie; Przybylko
We say: New York City FC 2-0 Chicago Fire
Chicago have lost seven successive away matches versus NYCFC in this competition, and though this will be their first visit to Citi Field, we believe the Pigeons' desperation will serve them well on Decision Day, though it may already be too little too late for each side in the playoff battle.
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Top tip
Joel Lefevre
