Panama can claim their first medal on the continental stage since 2015 when they battle Mexico in the third-place CONCACAF Nations League playoff match on Sunday at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada.
Los Canaleros were beaten 2-0 by Canada in the first semi-final played on Thursday, while El Tri were relegated to this match after falling 3-0 to the United States.
Match preview
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Despite a disappointing result for the Panamanians on Thursday, there is still something for the small transcontinental nation to play for, as they have not medalled in a major competition since winning bronze at the 2015 CONCACAF Gold Cup.
From a side that lost three of their four matches played in the inaugural CONCACAF Nations League tournament, this group have grown tremendously, going unbeaten in their first four encounters this time around, topping a group which featured Costa Rica and Martinique.
Their defeat to Canada earlier this week was the first time they had conceded in this season's competition, scoring eight goals without giving up one in the opening round.
Thomas Christiansen has been in charge of this program since July 2020 and has built an experienced squad who have been resilient and well-organised defensively over the past couple of years.
The former manager at Leeds United likes his side to play aggressively and make life chaotic for the opposition, and this group are not afraid to throw in a challenge, even at the risk of being booked, to break up transitions.
It has been nearly a decade since La Marea Roja defeated the Mexicans on the international stage, claiming a 2-1 victory against them to advance into the final of the 2013 CONCACAF Gold Cup.
The Gold Cup will be next on the agenda for Los Canaleros after this encounter as they open that tournament on June 26 versus Costa Rica before battling El Salvador and a team to be named later.
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Mexico are experiencing some dark days in the region for the first time in decades, having gone over four years without lifting a continental trophy, which for a program that has captured 11 Gold Cup competitions, must feel like an eternity.
El Tri saw their run of seven successive trips to the round of 16 at the World Cup end in Qatar last winter, and they have not nearly as dominant right as we are accustomed to seeing in CONCACAF.
This team barely got out of the group phase of this competition, having to come from behind on two separate occasions to draw Jamaica, as they narrowly advanced with eight points in the round-robin phase of the Nations League, two more than the Reggae Boyz.
Diego Cocca suffered his first defeat as Mexican boss Thursday, after the former manager at Tigres had earned a win or draw in their opening five internationals, including comeback results versus the Jamaicans (2-2) and in their last friendly against Cameroon (2-2).
Their defeat to the Americans on Thursday was the first time that Mexico had failed to find the back of the net since April 2022, when they drew 0-0 in a friendly versus Guatemala.
Sunday will be the first time since 2017 that El Tri are playing for a bronze medal in a CONCACAF competition after advancing to the final of the previous Nations League and the last two Gold Cup tournaments.
Since September 2022, the Mexicans have only conceded a first-half goal in three of its 13 international affairs, allowing three strikes in their previous two matches in all competitions.
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Team News
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Eric Davis will be suspended for the Panamanians on Sunday following his 89th-minute red card against Canada in a game where Anibal Godoy picked up his 123rd national team cap, moving into a tie with Armando Cooper for fourth all-time, while Azarias Londono replaced Cecilio Waterman for his first cap with Los Canaleros.
Yoel Barcenas leads Panama with two goals in this season's Nations League tournament, Waterman is their highest scorer chosen for this competition with eight strikes for the senior side, while Harold Cummings is the most experienced player with 82 caps.
Michael Murillo reached 60 caps for the national team on Thursday, Andres Andrade is up to 20, Jovani Welch picked up just his second, while Tomas Rodriguez, Jorge Serrano, Erick Diaz and Cesar Samudio are all searching for their first.
The Mexicans will be missing Cesar Montes and Gerardo Arteaga this weekend with red card suspensions, while Sebastian Cordova collected his 15th cap for the national team in the defeat to the US and Ozziel Herrera made just his fourth appearance.
Luis Romo has a chance to collect his 30th international cap on Sunday, Guillermo Ochoa made his 136th appearance in between the sticks this week, as he sits eight behind Gerardo Torrado for fifth in Mexican history, while Ajax midfielder Edson Alvarez is up to 62 caps with El Tri.
Alvarez had a goal the last time they faced Panama in the Nations League when a brace by Raul Jimenez gave them a 3-0 triumph, while Diego Lainez, Montes and Henry Martin each netted when they won by that same score in a 2021 friendly played in Nashville.
Panama possible starting lineup:
Mosquera; Cummings, Escobar, Andrade; Murillo, Carrasquilla, Godoy, Blackman, Barcenas, Gondola; Waterman
Mexico possible starting lineup:
Ochoa; Araujo, Vasquez, Guzman; Sanchez, Antuna, Alvarez, Gallardo; Pineda; Martin, Gimenez
We say: Panama 0-2 Mexico
Even though a medal would mean a lot more to the Panamanians than it would to Mexico, we are tipping El Tri to come out on top because of their experience and impressive track record against Los Canaleros.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 41.14%. A win for Panama had a probability of 38.29% and a draw had a probability of 20.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.06%) and 2-3 (5.02%). The likeliest Panama win was 2-1 (7.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (7.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mexico would win this match.
Joel Lefevre
