Malmo and PAOK continue their attempts to reach the main stage of the Champions League when they square off in the first leg of their third qualifying round tie on Tuesday evening.
Both teams came through entertaining tussles in the previous round to ensure they will play some form of European competition from September onwards.
Match preview
![Lasse Berg Johnsen of Malmo FF celebrates during the UEFA Champions League football match between Malmo FF and Klaksvik on July 23, 2024 [on July 28, 2024]](https://sm.imgix.net/24/30/lasse-berg-johnsen.jpg?w=640&h=480&auto=compress,format&fit=clip "Lasse Berg Johnsen of Malmo FF celebrates during the UEFA Champions League football match between Malmo FF and Klaksvik on July 23, 2024 [on July 28, 2024]")
© Imago
Sitting four points clear at the top of the Allsvenskan with a game in hand, Malmo can claim to be enjoying a fine campaign on the domestic front.
However, their league form has been shaky of late, suffering defeats to Mjallby and Sirius to bring the chasing pack back into contention.
Henrik Rydstrom's hope would have been that his side get back to winning ways in the second leg against KI, particularly having won the home leg by a 4-1 scoreline.
Instead, the Blue Ones suffered a 3-2 defeat, making it three losses from five outings in all competitions after they had previously been unbeaten in seven games.
With Malmo having missed out on European football entirely in the 2023-24 campaign, they will view this as one of the most important matches since they featured in the group stages of the Champions League back in 2021-22.
From PAOK's perspective, the Greek outfit will be attempting to build on their terrific Europa Conference League campaign from last season when they reached the quarter-finals.
There was ultimately disappointment that they could not get the better of Club Brugge in the last eight, yet it laid the foundations to earn a place in a more high-profile continental competition.
Borac Banja Luka from Bosnia and Herzegovina were defeated in the second qualifying round, PAOK twice fending off a fightback to win the home leg 3-2 before edging the reverse fixture by a 1-0 scoreline.
Unlike Malmo, Razvan Lucescu's side were without competitive football to their name ahead of that tie, and there is plenty of room for improvement heading into this contest.
Team News
© Reuters
Despite defeat last time out, Rydstrom may be prepared to select much of the same Malmo XI for this contest.
During the latter stages of the second leg with KI, the five most attacking players were rested, so the likes of Sebastian Jorgensen and Isaac Kiese Thelin will likely have to make do with a place on the substitutes' bench.
Barring any fitness issues, there are also unlikely to be many alterations, if any, to the PAOK starting lineup.
Just one change was made for the second leg against Borac Banja Luka, with Jonny Otto starting at right-back ahead of Joan Sastre.
If a switch is made, Andrija Zivkovic appears most likely to be recall on the right flank.
Malmo possible starting lineup:
Friedrich; Larsen, Jansson, Olsson, Busanello; Johnsen, Pena; Bolin, Christiansen, Rieks; Botheim
PAOK possible starting lineup:
Kotarski; Otto, Troost-Ekong, Koulierakis, Baba; Schwab, Ozdoev; Despodov, Murg, Taison; Thomas
We say: Malmo 1-1 PAOK
With the stakes getting higher, we do not expect the goals to flow like they did in the previous round. Although PAOK deserve to be regarded as the marginal favourites to progress, we feel that Malmo having more competitive football under their belt will lead to a low-scoring draw being played out.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a win with a probability of 57.86%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for had a probability of 19.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.93%) and 2-0 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.45%), while for a win it was 0-1 (5.5%).
