Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa Under-21s win with a probability of 55.06%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 24.26% and a draw had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.8%) and 3-1 (6.69%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 1-2 (6.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.73%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aston Villa Under-21s would win this match.