Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 46.66%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 29.14% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (7.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-3 win for Aston Villa in this match.
Result | ||
Burnley | Draw | Aston Villa |
46.66% ( 0.92) | 24.19% ( 0.32) | 29.14% ( -1.23) |
Both teams to score 57.87% ( -1.87) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.65% ( -2.12) | 44.35% ( 2.12) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.28% ( -2.09) | 66.72% ( 2.09) |
Burnley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.85% ( -0.47) | 19.14% ( 0.47) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.21% ( -0.78) | 50.79% ( 0.77) |
Aston Villa Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.57% ( -1.89) | 28.43% ( 1.89) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.81% ( -2.44) | 64.19% ( 2.44) |
Score Analysis |
Burnley | Draw | Aston Villa |
2-1 @ 9.36% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 9% ( 0.68) 2-0 @ 7.44% ( 0.46) 3-1 @ 5.16% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 4.1% ( 0.2) 3-2 @ 3.24% ( -0.19) 4-1 @ 2.13% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 1.69% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 1.34% ( -0.1) Other @ 3.21% Total : 46.67% | 1-1 @ 11.31% ( 0.28) 2-2 @ 5.88% ( -0.26) 0-0 @ 5.44% ( 0.48) 3-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.16) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.19% | 1-2 @ 7.12% ( -0.2) 0-1 @ 6.85% ( 0.27) 0-2 @ 4.3% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 2.98% ( -0.25) 2-3 @ 2.47% ( -0.25) 0-3 @ 1.8% ( -0.12) 1-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.14) Other @ 2.68% Total : 29.14% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Liverpool | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 13 | 18 | 36 |
2 | Chelsea | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 34 |
3 | Arsenal | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 30 |
4 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 28 |
5 | Manchester CityMan City | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 27 |
6 | Bournemouth | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 3 | 25 |
7 | Aston Villa | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 25 |
8 | Fulham | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 24 |
9 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 24 |
10 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 19 | 17 | 23 |
11 | Brentford | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 30 | 2 | 23 |
12 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 2 | 23 |
13 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 22 |
14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 19 |
15 | Crystal Palace | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 16 |
16 | Everton | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 15 |
17 | Leicester CityLeicester | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 14 |
18 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 12 |
19 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 40 | -16 | 9 |
20 | Southampton | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 36 | -25 | 5 |
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