Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 39.6%. A win for Everton had a probability of 34.03% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (6.87%). The likeliest Everton win was 0-1 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
Result | ||
Aston Villa | Draw | Everton |
39.6% ( -2.39) | 26.37% ( 0.24) | 34.03% ( 2.15) |
Both teams to score 52.71% ( -0.15) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.01% ( -0.48) | 51.99% ( 0.48) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.27% ( -0.41) | 73.73% ( 0.42) |
Aston Villa Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.24% ( -1.46) | 25.76% ( 1.46) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.3% ( -2.02) | 60.69% ( 2.03) |
Everton Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.99% ( 1.17) | 29.01% ( -1.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.09% ( 1.42) | 64.91% ( -1.42) |
Score Analysis |
Aston Villa | Draw | Everton |
1-0 @ 10.13% ( -0.24) 2-1 @ 8.51% ( -0.29) 2-0 @ 6.87% ( -0.46) 3-1 @ 3.85% ( -0.3) 3-0 @ 3.11% ( -0.35) 3-2 @ 2.38% ( -0.11) 4-1 @ 1.3% ( -0.16) 4-0 @ 1.05% ( -0.17) Other @ 2.39% Total : 39.6% | 1-1 @ 12.54% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 7.47% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 5.27% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.37% | 0-1 @ 9.25% ( 0.46) 1-2 @ 7.76% ( 0.32) 0-2 @ 5.72% ( 0.46) 1-3 @ 3.2% ( 0.23) 0-3 @ 2.36% ( 0.26) 2-3 @ 2.17% ( 0.07) 1-4 @ 0.99% ( 0.1) Other @ 2.57% Total : 34.03% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Liverpool | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 6 | 15 | 28 |
2 | Manchester CityMan City | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 13 | 9 | 23 |
3 | Chelsea | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 19 |
4 | Arsenal | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 19 |
5 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 19 |
6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 19 |
7 | Fulham | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 18 |
8 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 18 |
9 | Aston Villa | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 18 |
10 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 16 |
11 | Brentford | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 16 |
12 | Bournemouth | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 15 |
13 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 15 |
14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 12 |
15 | Leicester CityLeicester | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 10 |
16 | Everton | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 10 |
17 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 8 |
18 | Crystal Palace | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 7 |
19 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 6 |
20 | Southampton | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 21 | -14 | 4 |
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