Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 43.66%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 33.56% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.43%) and 2-0 (5.73%). The likeliest Southampton win was 1-2 (7.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.
Result | ||
Newcastle United | Draw | Southampton |
43.66% ( -3.63) | 22.78% ( 0.77) | 33.56% ( 2.87) |
Both teams to score 65.32% ( -1.5) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
64.47% ( -2.53) | 35.53% ( 2.53) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
42.42% ( -2.85) | 57.57% ( 2.86) |
Newcastle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.15% ( -2.3) | 16.85% ( 2.31) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.14% ( -4.27) | 46.86% ( 4.27) |
Southampton Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.56% ( 0.36) | 21.44% ( -0.36) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.55% ( 0.55) | 54.45% ( -0.55) |
Score Analysis |
Newcastle United | Draw | Southampton |
2-1 @ 8.82% ( -0.15) 1-0 @ 6.43% ( 0.32) 2-0 @ 5.73% ( -0.16) 3-1 @ 5.24% ( -0.53) 3-2 @ 4.03% ( -0.36) 3-0 @ 3.4% ( -0.39) 4-1 @ 2.33% ( -0.45) 4-2 @ 1.8% ( -0.32) 4-0 @ 1.51% ( -0.31) 4-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.15) Other @ 3.45% Total : 43.66% | 1-1 @ 9.91% ( 0.6) 2-2 @ 6.79% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 3.61% ( 0.44) 3-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.16) Other @ 0.4% Total : 22.78% | 1-2 @ 7.63% ( 0.54) 0-1 @ 5.56% ( 0.73) 0-2 @ 4.28% ( 0.61) 1-3 @ 3.92% ( 0.31) 2-3 @ 3.49% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 2.2% ( 0.33) 1-4 @ 1.51% ( 0.14) 2-4 @ 1.34% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.64% Total : 33.56% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Liverpool | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 25 |
2 | Manchester CityMan City | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 23 |
3 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 19 |
4 | Chelsea | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 18 |
5 | Arsenal | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 18 |
6 | Aston Villa | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 18 |
7 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 16 |
8 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 16 |
9 | Bournemouth | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
10 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 15 |
11 | Brentford | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 13 |
12 | Fulham | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 12 |
13 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 12 |
14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 11 |
15 | Leicester CityLeicester | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 10 |
16 | Everton | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 9 |
17 | Crystal Palace | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 7 |
18 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 5 |
19 | Southampton | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 4 |
20 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 3 |
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