EFL Cup

EFL Cup | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg

Jan 24, 2023 at 8pm UK

St. Mary's Stadium

Southampton
0 - 1
Newcastle

(Newcastle United win 3-1 on aggregate)

Caleta-Car (28'), Alcaraz (37'), Walker-Peters (44'), Lyanco (84'), Salisu (90+5')
Caleta-Car (86')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Joelinton (73')
Trippier (70'), Saint-Maximin (84'), Guimaraes (86')

The Match

Match Report

Newcastle United defeat Southampton 1-0 in the first leg of their EFL Cup semi-final, taking a slender lead into the second leg next Tuesday night.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup clash between Southampton and Newcastle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Southampton

All competitions

EFL Cup

Last Game: Southampton 0-1 Aston Villa
Saturday, January 21 at 3pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Newcastle United

All competitions

EFL Cup

Last Game: Crystal Palace 0-0 Newcastle
Saturday, January 21 at 5.30pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 48.82%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 26.82% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.51%) and 0-2 (8.19%). The likeliest Southampton win was 1-0 (6.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Newcastle United in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Newcastle United.

Result
Southampton	Draw	Newcastle United
26.82% ( -2.99)	24.36% ( 0.21)	48.82% ( 2.78)

Both teams to score 55.53% (

-2.9)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.38% (

-2.83)

46.62% (

2.83)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.11% (

-2.71)

68.89% (

2.71)

Southampton Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.69% (

-3.61)

31.31% (

3.61)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.33% (

-4.41)

67.66% (

4.41)

Newcastle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.84% (

0.02)

19.16% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.18% (

0.03)

50.82% (

-0.03)

Score Analysis

Southampton 26.82%

Newcastle United 48.82%

Draw 24.36%

Southampton	Draw	Newcastle United
1-0 @ 6.97% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 6.68% ( -0.55) 2-0 @ 4.05% ( -0.33) 3-1 @ 2.59% ( -0.51) 3-2 @ 2.14% ( -0.42) 3-0 @ 1.57% ( -0.31) Other @ 2.83% Total : 26.82%	1-1 @ 11.51% ( 0.25) 0-0 @ 6% ( 0.69) 2-2 @ 5.52% ( -0.45) 3-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.23) Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.36%	0-1 @ 9.91% ( 1.14) 1-2 @ 9.51% ( 0.21) 0-2 @ 8.19% ( 0.94) 1-3 @ 5.24% ( 0.12) 0-3 @ 4.51% ( 0.52) 2-3 @ 3.04% ( -0.25) 1-4 @ 2.16% ( 0.05) 0-4 @ 1.86% ( 0.22) 2-4 @ 1.26% ( -0.1) Other @ 3.14% Total : 48.82%