Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 73.02%. A draw had a probability of 16.7% and a win for Southampton had a probability of 10.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.4%) and 3-0 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.93%), while for a Southampton win it was 0-1 (3.36%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.
Result | ||
Newcastle United | Draw | Southampton |
73.02% ( -0.08) | 16.7% ( 0.05) | 10.28% ( 0.03) |
Both teams to score 48.27% ( -0.09) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.33% ( -0.17) | 39.67% ( 0.17) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.97% ( -0.18) | 62.02% ( 0.18) |
Newcastle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.54% ( -0.06) | 9.45% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
68.25% ( -0.14) | 31.74% ( 0.15) |
Southampton Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
53.31% ( -0.06) | 46.68% ( 0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
17.75% ( -0.05) | 82.25% ( 0.05) |
Score Analysis |
Newcastle United | Draw | Southampton |
2-0 @ 12.27% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 10.4% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 9.65% ( -0) 2-1 @ 9.35% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 7.35% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 5.69% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 4.34% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.8% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 2.69% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 2.05% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.65% ( -0.01) 6-0 @ 1.06% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.7% Total : 73% | 1-1 @ 7.93% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 4.41% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 3.56% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.8% Total : 16.7% | 0-1 @ 3.36% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 3.02% ( 0) 0-2 @ 1.28% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 0.9% ( -0) Other @ 1.71% Total : 10.28% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Liverpool | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 25 |
2 | Manchester CityMan City | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 23 |
3 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 19 |
4 | Chelsea | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 18 |
5 | Arsenal | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 18 |
6 | Aston Villa | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 18 |
7 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 16 |
8 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 16 |
9 | Bournemouth | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
10 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 15 |
11 | Brentford | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 13 |
12 | Fulham | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 12 |
13 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 12 |
14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 11 |
15 | Leicester CityLeicester | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 10 |
16 | Everton | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 9 |
17 | Crystal Palace | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 7 |
18 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 5 |
19 | Southampton | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 4 |
20 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 3 |
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