During their eight-match undefeated run on home soil, Casa Pia have either netted three goals — 3-1 wins over Moreirense, Arouca and Benfica — or scored one, as highlighted in 1-1 draws against Vitoria Guimaraes, Farense, AVS and Famalicao, while they secured a 1-0 success over Nacional.
Given the precedent and Estrela's miserable productivity on their travels, the hosts should back themselves for a slender victory on Sunday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 47.31%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 24.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.7%) and 2-1 (8.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.81%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (9.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Casa Pia in this match.
-2.4) 
1.09) 
