PSV Eindhoven hope to take the first step towards winning the Europa Conference League when they face Maccabi Tel Aviv in the first leg of their playoff tie on Thursday evening.
While PSV finished third in their Europa League group, Maccabi could only claim second being LASK Linz in their Europa Conference League group.
Match preview
© Reuters
Although PSV will fancy their chances of winning this competition, they were left frustrated in their failed attempt to stay in the Europa League before Christmas.
Only needing a draw away at Real Sociedad, the Dutch giants went down by a 3-0 scoreline, resulting in a third-placed finish by a point.
To their credit, Roger Schmidt and his squad rallied to win their next six fixtures on the domestic scene, but recent defeats to Ajax and AZ have left them five points adrift of the former, who are the frontrunners in Eredivisie.
While PSV still have ambitions to challenge for the league title and win the KNVB Beker, there is a real opportunity to end their 34-year wait for another European trophy.
Nine goals have been scored in their last two domestic fixtures, those strikes being shared around seven different players.
Having started their campaign in the early qualifying rounds, Maccabi Tel Aviv have played 12 matches to earn a spot in the playoff round.
Their sole defeat came by a 1-0 scoreline away at group winners LASK, but recently-appointed head coach Mladen Krstajic will be satisfied that the club have European fixtures to play during the second half of the season.
The Yellow Ones have recently moved into third position in Israel's top flight, a consequence of putting together a six-match unbeaten run, but they still sit eight points adrift of top spot.
Krstajic's team head into this fixture on the back of defeating Hapoel Tel Aviv in the derby, twice withstanding a comeback from the hosts before netting a last-minute winner through Dorde Jovanovic.
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- L
- D
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Schmidt will make several alterations to his PSV side for this contest with Marco van Ginkel among the players likely to be recalled.
Eran Zahavi will want to get the nod against Israeli opponents, potentially keeping out Carlos Vinicius, but Ritsu Doan should be included in a creative area.
With regards to the back four, Philipp Max and Armando Obispo are both in contention for outings at left-back and centre-back respectively.
Jovanovic could get the nod in the Maccabi attack having scored the winner at the weekend, and the Serbian may replace Eylon Almog.
Sheran Yeini is an option in midfield if Krstajic wants to include a more defensive-minded player, but the remainder of the side could stay the same.
PSV Eindhoven possible starting lineup:
Drommel; Mwene, Teze, Obispo, Max; Gutierrez, Van Ginkel; Madueke, Doan, Bruma; Zahavi
Maccabi Tel Aviv possible starting lineup:
Peretz; Geraldes, Nachmias, Saborit, Davidzada; Shamir, Glazer, Kanichowsky; Biton; Jovanovic, Perica
We say: PSV Eindhoven 2-0 Maccabi Tel Aviv
Given PSV's inconsistencies, Maccabi will fancy their chances of at least earning a share of the spoils from this contest. Nevertheless, home territory could prove key, and we are backing the Dutch outfit to claim a relatively comfortable win.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 57.04%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Maccabi Tel Aviv had a probability of 20.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.94%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.78%), while for a Maccabi Tel Aviv win it was 0-1 (5.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for PSV Eindhoven in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for PSV Eindhoven.
