PSV Eindhoven head into their fixture with Vitesse knowing that only victory will do if they realistically want to keep pace with Eredivisie leaders Ajax.
On the back of four matches without a win, Vitesse now sit five points adrift of their opponents ahead of Sunday's game at the Philips Stadion.
Match preview
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Having kept within touching distance of Ajax at the midway point of the campaign, Roger Schmidt would have been satisfied with how his side were progressing after a slow start.
However, as well as sitting six points adrift of the leaders having played a game more, their cup exit to the same team and Thursday's 4-2 Europa League defeat to Olympiacos has put Schmidt under increasing pressure at the Philips Stadion.
PSV have now conceded 11 goals in just five matches, a concerning return when taking into consideration that they have kept a clean sheet against Twente during that period.
Schmidt will acknowledge that the club are no more than rank outsiders to end their near three-year wait for another league crown, but the German has to show that he is the right man for the job going forward.
Despite their issues at the back, Eran Zahavi and Donyell Malen have contributed seven goals between them during the last four fixtures.
Opponents Vitesse have been the surprise package of the season, winning 13 of their first 18 fixtures in the Eredivisie.
However, a four-match streak without success has left them in fourth spot, just five points above sixth-placed Groningen, who also possess a game in hand.
Thomas Letsch knows that achieving a top-five spot is the absolute minimum expectation after such a strong start, but they can ill-afford many more dropped points over the coming weeks.
Vitas have suffered defeats against Heerenveen and Twente without scoring a goal, the first time that they failed to net in successive league fixtures all season.
PSV Eindhoven Eredivisie form: WWWLWD
PSV Eindhoven form (all competitions): WLWLDL
Vitesse Eredivisie form: WWLDLL
Vitesse form (all competitions): WLDLWL
Team News
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Schmidt will hope to be able to call upon Mohamed Ihattaren after the youngster missed out in midweek due to illness.
Mauro Junior and Yorbe Vertessen are pushing for recalls, while Timo Baumgartl is in line to replace Olivier Boscagli.
Vitesse midfielder Oussama Tannane is expected to be passed fit for this game despite his early withdrawal against Twente.
Chelsea loanee Armando Broja is without a goal in three matches, putting him at risk of being dropped for Oussama Darfalou.
PSV Eindhoven possible starting lineup:
Mvogo; Dumfries, Teze, Baumgartl, Max; Rosario, Sangare; Junior, Vertessen; Zahavi, Malen
Vitesse possible starting lineup:
Pasveer; Dasa, Doekhl, Bazoer, Rasmussen, Vittek; Vroegh, Tronstad, Tannane; Openda, Darfalou
We say: PSV Eindhoven 4-1 Vitesse
After the defeat in midweek, Schmidt will be aware that he is coming under pressure to get things back on track. With Vitesse having been poor of late, we expect PSV to do just that on Sunday, potentially prevailing by a wide scoreline.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 55.72%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 22.54% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.39%) and 2-0 (8.28%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-2 (5.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
