Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fakel win with a probability of 40.26%. A win for Orenburg had a probability of 35.02% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fakel win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.29%) and 2-0 (6.26%). The likeliest Orenburg win was 1-2 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.

Result
Fakel	Draw	Orenburg
40.26% ( -0.01)	24.72%	35.02% ( 0)

Both teams to score 58.55% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.45% (

-0)

44.55%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.09%

66.91% (

-0)

Fakel Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.9% (

-0.01)

22.1% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.54% (

-0.01)

55.45% (

Orenburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.15%

24.85% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.55% (

59.45% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Fakel 40.26%

Orenburg 35.02%

Draw 24.72%

Fakel	Draw	Orenburg
2-1 @ 8.71% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.29% ( -0) 2-0 @ 6.26% ( -0) 3-1 @ 4.39% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.15% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.05% 4-1 @ 1.66% 4-0 @ 1.19% 4-2 @ 1.15% Other @ 2.42% Total : 40.26%	1-1 @ 11.54% 2-2 @ 6.07% 0-0 @ 5.49% 3-3 @ 1.42% Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.72%	1-2 @ 8.04% 0-1 @ 7.65% ( 0) 0-2 @ 5.32% ( 0) 1-3 @ 3.73% 2-3 @ 2.82% 0-3 @ 2.47% 1-4 @ 1.3% 2-4 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.73% Total : 35.02%