Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 64.45%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 15.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.94%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.34%), while for an Arsenal Tula win it was 0-1 (4.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Sochi in this match.