Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Khimki win with a probability of 42.63%. A win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 29.95% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Khimki win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 2-0 (8.05%). The likeliest Arsenal Tula win was 0-1 (9.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.