With momentum building behind their 'Great Escape' from Serie A demotion, Salernitana host relegation rivals Cagliari on Sunday, in a potentially make-or-break occasion for both sides.
Just three games from the end of the season, the hosts are a point clear of their Sardinian counterparts in the standings following a fourth win from five matches in midweek - but an away victory would lift the visitors out of the drop zone at their rivals' expense.
Match preview
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Both battling to preserve their Serie A status, gained only a year ago, resurgent Salernitana met rock-bottom Venezia at Stadio Arechi on Thursday evening, with the chance to surpass 17th-placed Cagliari at stake for the home side.
A recent run of 10 points from a possible 12 had put their fate back in their own hands before kick off, and despite conceding an equaliser just before the hour mark, the Granata ultimately came out on top, thanks to Simone Verdi's winner midway through the second half.
That 2-1 success against one of their closest relegation rivals continues a remarkable comeback from an apparently certain demise, and Davide Nicola's side have now gone unbeaten in five games since the middle of last month - winning on no less than four occasions.
Under the watch of Serie A survival specialist Nicola, who has previously kept both Genoa and Torino up against the odds, Salernitana have followed an 11-game winless run with victories against Sampdoria, Udinese and Fiorentina.
Another home win on Thursday finally elevated them out of the bottom three at Cagliari's expense, and the Campanian club are now favourites to earn a stay of execution, having been promoted back to Serie A only last summer after over 20 years away.
However, Salernitana's last win against Sunday's visitors across Serie A, Serie B and the Coppa Italia was back in January 2004, so they will aim to end that drought in the process of pulling four points clear of danger with two games left to play.
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A repeat of the 1-1 draw between these clubs in November's reverse fixture will be of little use to Cagliari this weekend, as they must emerge from the Arechi with maximum points if they are to have their destiny in their own hands.
While seizing victory may seem within the compass of the Rossoblu, given their hosts' similarly lowly status in the pecking order, they will arrive in Salerno on the back of seven defeats in eight games, which saw experienced coach Walter Mazzarri given his marching orders.
Now with three games to play - Inter and Venezia provide contrasting opponents in the forthcoming fortnight - Cagliari have accrued only 28 points all season; the club's joint-fewest at this stage of a 20-team Serie A season.
Also sitting on 28 in 2015, the Sardinian side then suffered relegation, and new boss Alessandro Agostini - temporarily elevated from the primavera side to oversee the campaign's conclusion - has a huge job on his hands to extend their Serie A stay to a seventh straight season.
Beaten at home by Hellas Verona last weekend - which hastened Mazzarri's dismissal under a cloud of controversy relating to both his conduct and contract - Cagliari have lost each of their last three away games and have also conceded goals at a rate of two per game when on the road this term.
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Team News
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Facing a quick turnaround from Thursday night's game, Davide Nicola may make some changes to the side which defeated Venezia.
After coming off the bench to score the winner, Simone Verdi will hope to join Serbian striker Milan Djuric up front, but Sampdoria loanee Federico Bonazzoli is the man in possession.
Both Luca Ranieri and veteran winger Franck Ribery are not expected to recover from injury in time, but goalkeeper Luigi Sepe - who was forced off with an eye injury in midweek - should be available.
Meanwhile, ahead of perhaps their biggest match of the season, Cagliari are set to take a fully fit squad to Campania, so interim coach Alessandro Agostini is free to make alterations to Walter Mazzarri's favoured 3-5-2 setup if required.
In defence, Edoardo Goldaniga could make way for Luca Ceppitelli, while Leonardo Pavoletti is likely to replace misfiring striker Keita Balde.
He would join Joao Pedro up front, and the Cagliari captain is currently the outfield player to have played most minutes in Serie A this season. Of the 31 teams the Italy international has faced in the top flight, Salernitana are one of only four against whom he has yet to find the net.
Salernitana possible starting lineup:
Sepe; Gyomber, Radovanovic, Fazio; Mazzocchi, Ederson, Bohinen, L. Coulibaly, Ruggeri; Verdi, Djuric
Cagliari possible starting lineup:
Cragno; Ceppitelli, Lovato, Altare; Bellanova, Marin, Grassi, Rog, Dalbert; Pedro, Pavoletti
We say: Salernitana 2-2 Cagliari
Two teams equally desperate for the points should be expected to go all-out for victory, which could result in plenty of thrills for the neutral.
A change in the dugout may help Cagliari turn around their dire form, but Salernitana only need a draw to keep their noses in front so may settle for a point in the end.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Salernitana win with a probability of 41.23%. A win for Cagliari has a probability of 32.92% and a draw has a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline is Salernitana 1-1 Cagliari with a probability of 12.28% and the second most likely scoreline is Salernitana 1-0 Cagliari with a probability of 9.85%.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
