Separated by just two points and two places in the Serie A standings, Sampdoria and Venezia meet at Stadio Luigi Ferraris on Sunday evening.
Ahead of the clubs' penultimate league fixture of 2021, they both progressed to the Coppa Italia's last 16 in midweek, and the visitors could now follow up a fine result last weekend by leapfrogging their hosts with a win.
Match preview
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Back-to-back victories during the past week have seen Sampdoria's recent improvement gain pace, as posting three wins from five Serie A games took them eight points clear of the drop zone - inviting their fans to look up towards the top half rather than down at the dreaded bottom three.
The Blucerchiati took their tally to four successes from their last six in all competitions on Thursday, as Roberto D'Aversa led his side to a 2-1 cup win over Torino.
Having made several changes to the regular league XI, D'Aversa saw his men earn a place in the third round thanks to Valerio Verre's winning goal on the hour mark, so they can now focus solely on Serie A concerns.
Previously triumphant in the season's first Derby della Lanterna against struggling Genoa, 14th-placed Samp may have belatedly found some momentum after a sticky start to life under their new coach, but will still be concerned about a defensive record which undermines the attacking contributions of veteran winger Antonio Candreva.
While the former Lazio star has registered six goals and five assists so far, his back four colleagues have fared far worse, having leaked a club record 33 Serie A goals to date - the Ligurian club's worst such tally after 17 top-flight matches.
Nonetheless, Sampdoria will now face opponents with a similar inability to bolt the back door, as their Venetian counterparts also concede at a rate of nearly two per game.
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The loss of 30 league goals to this point represents Venezia's worst Serie A start defensively since 1949, but they managed to restrict their most recent Serie A opponents to a solitary strike last weekend.
The Lagunari's chief creator Mattia Aramu cancelled out an Alvaro Morata opener when Juventus came to the diminutive Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, earning a hard-fought 1-1 draw against the 36-time national champions. That improbable point helped recover their equilibrium, following an implosion when leading 3-0 in the Veneto derby with Verona, which they ultimately lost 4-3.
Head coach Paolo Zanetti will have been delighted to build on that morale-boosting performance with a Coppa Italia success just days later, when they progressed to the last 16 by beating Serie B side Ternana 3-1 at the Penzo.
The Arancioneroverdi will face Atalanta in the next round, but must first close out a special year for the club - in which they were promoted back to the top flight after nearly two decades away - by visiting Sampdoria and then hosting Lazio next week.
After ending a run of four games without a win, then, Venezia will now hope to take their first three-point haul since beating Bologna a month ago.
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Team News
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After serving a ban last week, Pietro Ceccaroni will once more be available to Venezia coach Paolo Zanetti this Sunday, and the centre-back should come into the heart of visitors' back four. He will start alongside on-loan Mattia Caldara, who is rumoured to be in line for an early return to parent club Milan as defensive cover.
Nigerian striker David Okereke is again expected to be absent through injury, so Thomas Henry and Dennis Johnsen could start up front, with support from Mattia Aramu, who netted his fifth goal of the season against Juventus - taking him above Okereke as the club's top scorer.
Antonio Vacca is a doubt in midfield due to a knee problem, but did sign a new contract with the Lagunari earlier this week. In his absence, Ethan Ampadu should run the engine room in a much-changed side from that which started the cup win on Tuesday.
Sampdoria will also revert to a more familiar first XI at Marassi, as Francesco Caputo, Manolo Gabbiadini and goalkeeper Emil Audero - among others - are restored to the team.
Mikkel Damsgaard, Ernesto Torregrossa and Ronaldo Vieira are all still sidelined for the home side, and Roberto D'Aversa could name the same side which beat Genoa in the Derby, lining up in a 4-4-2.
Having scored from the spot in midweek, experienced striker Fabio Quagliarella should drop to the bench, from where he will offer a second-half option if Samp struggle to finish off their opponents.
Sampdoria possible starting lineup:
Audero; Bereszynski, Yoshida, Colley, Augello; Candreva, Ekdal, Thorsby, Verre; Gabbiadini, Caputo
Venezia possible starting lineup:
Romero; Ebuehi, Caldara, Ceccaroni, Molinaro; Crnigoj, Ampadu, Busio; Aramu; Henry, Johnsen
We say: Sampdoria 2-1 Venezia
Sampdoria are stirring into life after their sluggish start to the 2021-22 campaign, and can earn a third straight win at the expense of their Venetian counterparts on Sunday.
As the hosts' strike force have found their feet, ongoing defensive deficiencies matter a little less - and Venezia are very unlikely to keep them at bay for a full 90 minutes.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sampdoria win with a probability of 50.45%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Venezia had a probability of 24.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sampdoria win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.5%) and 2-1 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.08%), while for a Venezia win it was 0-1 (7.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.
