Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bari win with a probability of 38.38%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 33.79% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bari win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.07%) and 0-2 (7.1%). The likeliest Spezia win was 1-0 (10.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.

Result
Spezia	Draw	Bari
33.79% ( -0.54)	27.83% ( 0.03)	38.38% ( 0.51)

Both teams to score 48.13% (

-0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.24% (

-0.16)

57.75% (

0.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.5% (

-0.13)

78.49% (

0.13)

Spezia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.95% (

-0.44)

32.05% (

0.44)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.48% (

-0.51)

68.51% (

0.5)

Bari Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.83% (

0.22)

29.17% (

-0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.89% (

0.27)

65.11% (

-0.27)

Score Analysis

Spezia 33.78%

Bari 38.37%

Draw 27.82%

Spezia	Draw	Bari
1-0 @ 10.63% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 7.46% ( -0.09) 2-0 @ 6.05% ( -0.11) 3-1 @ 2.83% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 2.3% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.78% Total : 33.78%	1-1 @ 13.1% 0-0 @ 9.35% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 4.59% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.78% Total : 27.82%	0-1 @ 11.51% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 8.07% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 7.1% ( 0.13) 1-3 @ 3.32% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 2.91% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 1.89% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.02% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.55% Total : 38.37%