Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 62.74%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Ecuador had a probability of 11.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 1-0 with a probability of 20.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.35%) and 3-0 (7.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.17%), while for a Ecuador win it was 0-1 (6.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 20.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Uruguay in this match.