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Birmingham logo
Championship | Gameweek 40
Apr 3, 2022 at 3pm UK
St Andrew's
West Brom logo

Birmingham
1 - 0
West Brom

Taylor (67' pen.)
Taylor (75'), Bacuna (85')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Livermore (75')

Preview: Birmingham City vs. West Bromwich Albion - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Championship clash between Birmingham City and West Bromwich Albion, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

West Bromwich Albion make the short trip to St Andrew's to face Birmingham City knowing that only victory will do if they want to realistically remain as contenders for the Championship playoffs.

Meanwhile, Blues head into Sunday's fixture on the brink of confirming safety in the second tier, helped by a recent run of five points from four games.


Match preview

West Bromwich Albion manager Steve Bruce on March 10, 2022© Reuters

Having gone into the international break on a four-match unbeaten streak, there is no doubt that West Brom have started to improve considerably under the guidance of Steve Bruce.

A total of eight points have been recorded during that period, the latest of those coming from a 2-2 draw at Bristol City in a game when the Baggies were behind on two occasions.

The stalemate has done little for the club's prospects of reaching the playoffs - they remain seven points adrift of sixth position - but there is growing momentum at The Hawthorns ahead of the run-in.

Most importantly, Bruce is finally seeing his side score goals, seven being netted in 360 minutes after a previous run of just one strike in seven outings.

West Brom end the campaign with five home games during their final seven fixtures, theoretically giving them a huge advantage, but they still must claim maximum points from games such as the derby showdown at the weekend.

Birmingham City manager Lee Bowyer on February 4, 2022© Reuters

Lee Bowyer has endured somewhat of a turbulent first full campaign at Birmingham, his team battling to remain out of a relegation battle since the turn of the year.

However, while there are several reasons why Bowyer and his team will come in for criticism, they have kept their points tally ticking over to sit 14 points clear of the bottom three.

All things considered, Blues are probably already safe in the Championship for another year, but Bowyer will want to build on the improvements of the past month.

Five points came from games against Bristol City, Hull City and Swansea City, their only defeat during that period coming at home to promotion-chasing Middlesbrough.

Nevertheless, Birmingham have not troubled the scoresheet for 347 minutes, something which may need to change in order to earn at least a point on Sunday.

Birmingham City Championship form:
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • D

West Bromwich Albion Championship form:
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • D



Team News

Birmingham City's Scott Hogan celebrates scoring their first goal against Derby County in the Championship on September 10, 2021© Reuters

Bruce revealed on Friday that Daryl Dike is now expected to miss the rest of the season after suffering a tendon injury.

Andy Carroll comes back into contention, but Bruce could select the same side which started the fixture at Bristol City.

As for Birmingham, Bowyer must decide whether to hand an immediate recall to Kristian Pedersen, who has served a suspension.

The Dane could either be used on the left-hand side of a back three or at wing-back, leaving the places of Nico Gordon and Onel Hernandez at risk.

Providing that he has fully recovered from a calf injury, Lyle Taylor may return to the starting XI to replace Scott Hogan.

Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Etheridge; Colin, Roberts, Gordon; Graham, Sunjic, Gardner, Bacuna, Pedersen; Chong, Taylor

West Bromwich Albion possible starting lineup:
Johnstone; Bartley, Ajayi, Clarke; Furlong, Gardner-Hickman, Livermore, Mowatt, Townsend; Robinson, Grant


SM words green background

We say: Birmingham City 0-1 West Bromwich Albion

Despite the difference in league positions, this has all the makings of a really tight game. While we would not be surprised if Blues earn a share of the spoils in a low-scoring draw, the Baggies may just do enough to claim all three points.


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a West Bromwich Albion win with a probability of 46.58%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Birmingham City had a probability of 25.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a West Bromwich Albion win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.25%) and 1-2 (8.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.79%), while for a Birmingham City win it was 1-0 (9.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Birmingham vs West Brom

Birmingham City
21.3%
Draw
29.8%
West Bromwich Albion
48.9%
47
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TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sunderland139222391429
2Leeds UnitedLeeds137512281426
3Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd138321661025
4Burnley136521761123
5Watford137152221122
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom13562148621
7Millwall135441612419
8Blackburn RoversBlackburn135441614219
9Bristol City134721717019
10Norwich CityNorwich134632318518
11Middlesbrough135351415-118
12Swansea CitySwansea13445109116
13Coventry CityCoventry134361717015
14Derby CountyDerby134361617-115
15Hull City133641517-215
16Stoke CityStoke134361518-315
17Cardiff CityCardiff134361319-615
18Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds134361524-915
19Oxford UnitedOxford Utd133551617-114
20Preston North EndPreston133551420-614
21Luton TownLuton133371521-612
22Plymouth ArgylePlymouth133371325-1212
23Queens Park RangersQPR131751119-810
24Portsmouth131661326-139


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