World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Oct 12, 2023 at 9.30pm UK

Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Melendez

Colombia
2 - 2
Uruguay

Rodriguez (35'), Uribe (52')
Vargas (8')
Vargas (87')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Olivera (47'), Nunez (90+1' pen.)

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Colombia and Uruguay, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Colombia

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Chile 0-0 Colombia
Wednesday, September 13 at 1.30am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Brazil	2	5	6
2	Argentina	2	4	6
3	Colombia	2	1	4
4	Uruguay	2	1	3
5	Ecuador	2	0	3
6	Venezuela	2	0	3
7	Paraguay	2	-1	1
8	Peru	2	-1	1
9	Chile	2	-2	1
10	Bolivia	2	-7	0

Uruguay

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Ecuador 2-1 Uruguay
Tuesday, September 12 at 10pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Brazil	2	5	6
2	Argentina	2	4	6
3	Colombia	2	1	4
4	Uruguay	2	1	3
5	Ecuador	2	0	3
6	Venezuela	2	0	3
7	Paraguay	2	-1	1
8	Peru	2	-1	1
9	Chile	2	-2	1
10	Bolivia	2	-7	0

While Uruguay arguably boast slightly more quality throughout their squad, Thursday certainly presents a tough test against a Colombia team who also have momentum from a fine run, and we see a share of the spoils as the most likely outcome in Barranquilla. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colombia win with a probability of 65.51%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Uruguay had a probability of 12.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a Colombia win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.25%) and 2-1 (8.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10%), while for a Uruguay win it was 0-1 (5.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Colombia	Draw	Uruguay
65.51% ( 1.11)	22.04% ( -0.26)	12.45% ( -0.86)

Both teams to score 39.01% (

-1.48)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.74% (

-0.71)

56.25% (

0.71)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.7% (

-0.58)

77.29% (

0.58)

Colombia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.42% (

0.13)

16.57% (

-0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.63% (

0.24)

46.36% (

-0.24)

Uruguay Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

46.76% (

-1.85)

53.24% (

1.85)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

13.19% (

-1.2)

86.8% (

1.2)

Score Analysis

Colombia 65.51%

Uruguay 12.45%

Draw 22.04%

Colombia	Draw	Uruguay
1-0 @ 15.86% ( 0.5) 2-0 @ 14.25% ( 0.51) 2-1 @ 8.98% ( -0.17) 3-0 @ 8.54% ( 0.34) 3-1 @ 5.38% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 3.84% ( 0.17) 4-1 @ 2.42% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.7% ( -0.12) 5-0 @ 1.38% ( 0.07) Other @ 3.16% Total : 65.51%	1-1 @ 10% ( -0.22) 0-0 @ 8.83% ( 0.24) 2-2 @ 2.83% ( -0.21) Other @ 0.38% Total : 22.04%	0-1 @ 5.56% ( -0.15) 1-2 @ 3.15% ( -0.25) 0-2 @ 1.75% ( -0.15) Other @ 1.98% Total : 12.45%