World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Sep 12, 2023 at 10pm UK

Estadio de Liga Deportiva Universitaria

Ecuador
2 - 1
Uruguay

Torres (45+5', 61')
Preciado (78'), Gruezo (90+7')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Canobbio (38')
de la Cruz (42'), Olivera (64'), Vina (90+2')

Chelsea teenager Kendry Paez stars in Ecuador win over Uruguay

Chelsea youngster Kendry Paez stars on his senior debut as Ecuador record a 2-1 victory over Uruguay in Tuesday's World Cup qualifier.

Sep 13, 09:32

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Ecuador and Uruguay, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ecuador

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Argentina 1-0 Ecuador
Friday, September 8 at 1am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Brazil	1	4	3
2	Uruguay	1	2	3
3	Argentina	1	1	3
4	Colombia	1	1	3
5	Paraguay	1	0	1
6	Peru	1	0	1
7	Venezuela	1	-1	0
8	Ecuador	1	-1	0
9	Chile	1	-2	0
10	Bolivia	1	-4	0

Uruguay

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Uruguay 3-1 Chile
Saturday, September 9 at 12am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Brazil	1	4	3
2	Uruguay	1	2	3
3	Argentina	1	1	3
4	Colombia	1	1	3
5	Paraguay	1	0	1
6	Peru	1	0	1
7	Venezuela	1	-1	0
8	Ecuador	1	-1	0
9	Chile	1	-2	0
10	Bolivia	1	-4	0

While the visitors have been the dominant team in this encounter over the last few years, Ecuador are a very good side on their home patch and have won each of their last three against this opponent when playing at home. We expect this to be a free-flowing and entertaining match but fancy the hosts to win it by a one-goal margin. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 45.34%. A draw had a probability of 29.2% and a win for Uruguay had a probability of 25.43%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.5%) and 2-1 (8.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.03%), while for a Uruguay win it was 0-1 (10.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Ecuador in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Ecuador.

Result
Ecuador	Draw	Uruguay
45.34% ( -0.24)	29.23% ( 0.04)	25.43% ( 0.2)

Both teams to score 40.79% (

0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

34.89% (

-0.02)

65.11% (

0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

16.03% (

-0.02)

83.97% (

0.02)

Ecuador Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.13% (

-0.14)

28.87% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.27% (

-0.17)

64.74% (

0.18)

Uruguay Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.35% (

0.17)

42.65% (

-0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21% (

0.14)

79% (

-0.14)

Score Analysis

Ecuador 45.33%

Uruguay 25.43%

Draw 29.22%

Ecuador	Draw	Uruguay
1-0 @ 15.29% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 9.5% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 8.1% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 3.94% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 3.35% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.43% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.22% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.04% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.46% Total : 45.33%	1-1 @ 13.03% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 12.31% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 3.45% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.43% Total : 29.22%	0-1 @ 10.49% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 5.55% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 4.47% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 1.58% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.09% Total : 25.43%